Gus Cosio says so

Ideas on the Philippine Stock Market

Bummer!

1:30 pm  Thursday  21 October 2010

Some people have dirty minds, and some people are plain and simple gullible.  If you are one of those who is in the habit of pulling pranks, you probably know that bomb threats cannot be taken lightly.  If you are the one being threatened, you have to be very sure of your security, otherwise, you will fall sucker to these threats.  What a way to spoil people’s days.  I think the first order of business in the PSE and the Ayala Tower One property manager is to take their security controls more seriously.  While you see these security guards accosting people who enter the premises, there are still many who get through without scrutiny at all.  If things remain the same in that building, we will see more of these disruptions which takes a lot of wind out of our sales.  When there is momentum in the market, there is nothing like a bummer such as this to leave people like me frustrated.

I was quite keen on picking up some EDC, DMC, TEL or more of ORE today; but I simply threw my hands up in the air and left it.  I do not want to make my calls when disruption psychology in the market abounds.  I think many investors have lost their focus today.  I will choose to trade another day when there are fewer distractions.

7:00 pm

It is not all bad news after all.  The market seemed to have move up by 57 points and all our favorite stocks were winners today.

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October 21, 2010 - Posted by | Financial markets in Asia

65 Comments »

  1. Some people have nothing better to do. Bomb pranks are the worse.

    Comment by John | October 21, 2010 | Reply

  2. I was only able to execute 1 of my planned 4 deals today. (Was only able to get some DMC). Would you think the market would slightly dip tomorrow due to this? I was also thinking.. since the PSE has 2 buildings, isn’t there a back up system ready to fire in case these scenarios happen? I also work in the financial industry and whenever our main system goes down, its automatic that the backup goes online..

    Comment by Ardie | October 21, 2010 | Reply

  3. Hi sir,

    I was just wondering, what was the market like during the years 2005 and below? I know it cant be as dynamic as it is compared to today but were there also runs during those days?

    Comment by Ria | October 21, 2010 | Reply

  4. Hi Gus. No matter, tomorrow is another day. 🙂

    Btw, will you be a buyer of PX at these levels – 13.66p?

    Comment by jasper | October 21, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi Jasper,
      Yes, I probably would; but it seems the action in mining is now in AT and ORE. Also, Nickel Asia is something to look forward to.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | October 21, 2010 | Reply

      • I wonder, MVP said that PX’s earnings rose sharply during the third quarter. I wonder how sharply and if it would be enough to bring the pe ratio down to below 20 by year end..

        You really do believe in ORE do you!? hehe.. its infectious..

        Comment by jasper | October 21, 2010

  5. Hi Sir Gus

    I am starting to like ORE because of the increasing participation of institutional fund managers which means there will less jockeying of the stock and the transfer from weak hands to stronger hands.

    Anyway, what would be the effect of the compromise agreement to ORE’s market price?

    Comment by Claire | October 21, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi Claire,

      Where have you observed this influx of institutional funds? The only source I have is the broker information from COL and from there unfortunately, it’s all jockey.

      Comment by Joshua | October 24, 2010 | Reply

  6. i can’t seem to find the link for the facebook that contains the ore pictures.. would the original poster place the link here again? thanks..

    Comment by jasper | October 21, 2010 | Reply

  7. Hi Sir Gus,
    SLI dropped to 1.99 from its 3 day support of 2. Should we buy more? 😀
    Thanks

    Comment by pikachu | October 21, 2010 | Reply

  8. Whoever did that .. Get a life! If you’re bored and nothing to do with your life, just jump over the bridge. Kainis!

    Comment by Joey deleon | October 21, 2010 | Reply

  9. Hi gus, saw you at the first metro launching last week, just wanna ask if it is still safe to buy in Ore at this level what your price target for Ore..thanks

    Comment by Marc | October 22, 2010 | Reply

    • Marc,
      I do not put targets on stocks that I buy. I buy stock because it is worth buying because of its underlying and emerging values. I hold it for as long as the stock is fair value. As I mentioned earlier in a comment, I learned that ORE has forecast EPS of 1 peso for 2011. That makes the stock very cheap.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | October 22, 2010 | Reply

  10. I think the bomb prank was done by someone who got left behind by the rising bandwagon of the PSE hoping it will fallback so that he can jump-in.

    Comment by jopard | October 22, 2010 | Reply

  11. Listen to Gus Cosio on ANC now talking about Stock Investing 101

    Comment by thewingedpalate | October 22, 2010 | Reply

  12. His topic for today is Importance of Investment Literacy

    Comment by thewingedpalate | October 22, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi! Sir Gus has a show on ANC? When did it start? I hope it gets uploaded on youtube.

      Comment by oliver mia | October 22, 2010 | Reply

      • Oliver,
        It was not a show. They just invited me to talk about online trading which has really gained popularity given the access that investors can get through online brokers like http://www.firstmetrosec.com.ph and COL.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | October 24, 2010

  13. Hi Sir Gus, is it still ok to pick up some ore around 3.5? THanks!

    Comment by Cholo | October 22, 2010 | Reply

    • I’ve you believe that it should be worth at least 6, then I guess it should be..

      Comment by jasper | October 22, 2010 | Reply

      • Thanks Jasper! Im gna get myself some more ORE on Monday

        Comment by Cholo | October 22, 2010

      • Err.. btw, i have no ore myself and might not get it alright. Its not yet on my radar. I’m still obsessing about some bank I want to buy..

        Comment by jasper | October 22, 2010

      • Hey Jasper,

        Care to share that bank?

        Comment by Steve Jobs | October 22, 2010

      • Is that rcbc? haha

        Comment by Ria | October 22, 2010

      • hehe, yeah it is.. i bought some at 27.xx but its still not enough to my satisfaction. But the discussion on ore is starting to mess with my thinking. i mean, what if ore really is a 2 bagger?

        but i still believe that rcbc is worth substantially more than its current price.

        Comment by jasper | October 22, 2010

  14. hi sir gus,

    what’s up with SCC? it’s gone up 11.96% today (well as of now) any news?

    Comment by roxy | October 22, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi Roxy,
      It is still the same momentum that is driving SCC. It tough stopping these bulls.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | October 22, 2010 | Reply

    • It was going down since the past week or so… Reached its moving averages.. It had to bounce

      Comment by Foreign Investor | October 22, 2010 | Reply

  15. Hi sir,

    Would you still consider it safe getting DMC next week at the 35 level? I was planning to get yesterday but I didnt know that trading resumed from 12-1 as my friend told me. Bummer as you said! 😦 I was also thinking of getting last minute JGS…

    Thanks!

    Comment by Nico | October 22, 2010 | Reply

  16. Sir,
    Your thoughts on yesterdays disclosure from ORE regarding compromise agreement between Platinum Group Metals and Citinikel Mines. Are you seeing impact on the downside?
    Thanks

    Comment by Mark Anthony | October 22, 2010 | Reply

  17. HI Sir Gus,

    What’s your take on FGEN?

    Thanks.

    Comment by Blade | October 22, 2010 | Reply

  18. Hi Sir,
    AP is relentless. What’s with this stock? Bought mine in the teens (P18-19) and now approaching the 30’s. Its 25% of my portfolio. Should I be cautious? I feeling says, “no”. Any thoughts?

    Comment by Mark Anthony | October 22, 2010 | Reply

    • When I analyzed it before when it was at its 20’s, its pe was a measly 7-8x. For a fast growing power company thats too small.

      I think the price is just reflecting its proper value. Pe should now be 10 or so.. Still not too high given its prospects.

      Comment by jasper | October 22, 2010 | Reply

    • Energy is one of the best stocks for the year in my view.

      Comment by joppy gwapo | October 22, 2010 | Reply

      • And the next bubble…according to Gordon Gekko =)

        Comment by Raymond | October 22, 2010

      • The valuation is still low. Its not like the tech stocks that had pe’s greater than 30 and a miniscule income. AP’s income has been explosive (I dont have AP btw)

        I think mining is the one exhibiting a more speculative nature. The mines for one aren’t producing that much of an income yet (ORE is yet to ship).

        Comment by jasper | October 22, 2010

  19. Hi Gus, Thanks for writing about DMC and AP, as well as MBT. All gained a good 3-5% today. Really appreciate you sharing your expertise to us. More power.

    Comment by Brent | October 22, 2010 | Reply

  20. We are lucky to be engaged in a very bullish market! Even the long weekend that typically leads to heavy selling have not prevented PSE to reach a new all time high! I`m very optimistic CEB IPO next week will be a success. The timing is impeccable. A newsletter forwarded to me even mentioned that a big foreign player plans an aggressive accumulation even at 140-160 level.

    Comment by Chris M. | October 22, 2010 | Reply

  21. Mr. Cosio

    Do you have any information on MRC? Bong Tan’s entry to this firm caused excitement but now even his dad is sort of giving it negative publicity by pupblishing in papers his non-involvment in this enterprise of his son? It was trading at around 80 cents a few weeks back but is now down to 60 cents. Is this a good buy at this price?

    Thank you.

    Comment by Jacob | October 22, 2010 | Reply

    • Jacob,
      I haven’t followed MRC. Your guess is as good as mine though I won’t touch it fot the time being, at least not on such scant information.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | October 23, 2010 | Reply

  22. Hi Sir Gus!

    Thanks for your insights on ORE and SLI. I already top sliced my ORE shares and transferred to SLI. Do you have an idea when the 3rd quarter GDP result will be out?

    Thank you.

    Comment by Anthony | October 23, 2010 | Reply

    • Hello Sir Gus,
      I have both positions with SLI and ORE. As Anthony mentioned he top sliced his shares in ORE, but do you still think its fundamentally sound to add up and accumulate ORE shares at the moment? Since I want to make ORE my core share around 40% of my portfolio, since i believe the main value of the company would come out by end of this year or early next year and also the IPO of Nickel Asia would be next month
      Thanks and have a great day

      Comment by Foreign Investor | October 23, 2010 | Reply

      • Rav,
        In principle, I do not want mining shares in core portfolio because they are very cyclical. Right now, we are still in an up cycle for metals so many mining shares will do well. Right now, my idea is to have 25% of portfolio in ORE. I believe that it should go to 4 in a few weeks. The home run is if it goes to 6 in the next 12 months because given its prospective earnings, it could.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | October 23, 2010

      • Thank you for sharing your opinion, I gladly appreciate it. I will see how things go this week especially with the Cebu Pacific IPO next week the attention would be in the Gokongwei stocks. So I think most investors would be looking at that and I think it would be a great time to position into blue chips and other high potential companies. I will add up some more position into ORE. Im also looking at Consumer related shares some are still undervalued, it might be boosted this season

        Comment by Foreign Investor | October 23, 2010

  23. any comments on which phone is better: samsung galaxy I9000 or htc wildfire?

    Comment by gerald | October 23, 2010 | Reply

    • Galaxy. It has better fundamentals.

      Comment by Jay | October 24, 2010 | Reply

    • You could also consider HTC HD2, value wise, it’s the bang for the buck! A shop in Park Square 1 sells it for 25k for 12 months at 0% interest.

      Comment by KennyV | October 24, 2010 | Reply

  24. am always on the road and could not have access to the internet any suggestions on a phone that could accomodate online trading thru cellphone best? while on this subject, any suggestions on what online trading should i get? any one here into marginal trading?

    Comment by gerald | October 24, 2010 | Reply

    • Gerald,
      I have a phone that can access a browser. I have tried accessing http://www.firstmetrosec.com.ph through my phone and it works. I can see my portfolio, but I haven’t tried inputting an order yet.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | October 24, 2010 | Reply

      • thru my E51 i am also able to access http://www.firstmetrosec.com.ph and do the usual transactions

        Comment by tatels | October 25, 2010

      • That’s wonderful, Tatels. I’m an old fogey, so I choose to trade on my laptop. While i get internet connected on my phone, the fonts are just too small and I’d have to scroll to see the whole page.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | October 26, 2010

    • Hello Gerald,
      I am a small time trader as i am a full-time industry worker under engineering. So when I’m on travel or coordinating a fieldwork, I am using my nokia phone N82 to post my order or check quotes thru BPITrade and it’s not so inconvenient as long as you know what to do before pre-open. There is also a quote page that makes you view stocks under your watch so you don’t really need to operate the small keypad!

      I’ve done many transactions with it already at Php 5 peso per 15 minutes using Globe.

      Hope this helps.

      Comment by Aldrien | October 24, 2010 | Reply

  25. Hello Sir Gus.

    I working on re-balancing my meduim size portfolio to: EDC, VLL, AP, DMC, CEB, PNB, ORE, LPZ, RFM, CMT & GMA. Can give your valued insight on them.

    Comment by Ralph | October 24, 2010 | Reply

    • Ralph,
      My opinions: PNB has run its course for the time being. RFM is probably getting ready for a major move. Consumer plays are quite welcome in the market today. VLL is still very cheap. GMA should move about a bit but I do not see outperformance in the stock though I like the company a lot. CMT is very profitable but the stock is very illiquid. LPZ will benefit from its present hoard of cash plus the performance of its power generating subsidiaries. AP and DMC will continue to be the raging bulls that they’ve been over the last year. ORE, well, I hear that it is trading 3.5X 2011 earnings. I’m afraid that CEB might go as high as 150 near term.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | October 25, 2010 | Reply

  26. I just watched “wall street”. It was very good. Now I need to watch the original again so I can decide which is better. Which is surprising because remakes usually are worse than the original..

    “A fisherman always sees another fisherman from afar”..

    I’m pumped with regards to trading again. Maybe I can gel my hair back too eh.. hehehe..

    Although I must say, Charlie Sheen and Michael Douglas seemed so old I half expected them to clutch their back and complain of Rheumatism.

    Comment by jasper | October 24, 2010 | Reply

    • The First Wall Street was way much better for my opinion

      Comment by Foreign Investor | October 25, 2010 | Reply

      • I actually liked the 2nd Wall Street movie better. It had very subtle but dramatic twists. It also played on the character flaws of the players and their redemption. I also thought it to be more realistic.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | October 25, 2010

  27. Hi Gus,

    How does the disclosure on the compromise agreement between Citinickel and PGMC affect ORE’s price? Moreover will the 30 million shares dissolve the existing shares of ORE? Thanks.

    Brent

    Comment by Brent | October 24, 2010 | Reply

    • Brent,
      I do not think 30 million shares will cause a lot of dilution. The settlement of the dispute is good news for both parties because litigations is very expensive for both sides and could last forever without giving benefit to either party. A settlement frees up the legal impediments for continuous production.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | October 25, 2010 | Reply

  28. I think when things like these happen, short selling should be suspended.

    Comment by Ian Patrick | October 24, 2010 | Reply

  29. I think the compromise agreement b/n Citinickel and PGMC is a positive development for ORE as it removed the legal impediment for Citinickel to start shipment while the 30MM shares are new issues (2%) with little effect on the dilution of existing ORE shares.

    Comment by Ralph | October 24, 2010 | Reply

  30. Sir Gus I heard IP has another subsidiary due for listing this year, after what happened to EG, and the apparent sell on news on IP shares, what do u think is in store for IP should the listing push thru…? thanks and Good health to u always sir…

    ps. u look a lot younger on the ANC interview than the picture u have on this site.

    Comment by migs-ron | October 25, 2010 | Reply

    • Thanks for the compliment, Migs-ron. Yes, I heard something on the IP subsidiary. I think it is a data center, but I have no details yet.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | October 26, 2010 | Reply


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