Gus Cosio says so

Ideas on the Philippine Stock Market

About

The face behind the Blog.

Gus Cosio at the Merrill Lynch 2008 Rising Stars Conference in Singapore

Gus Cosio
Manila, Philippines

Gus is a consultant in one of the Philippines‘ leading investment houses.
Having worked with global investment firms in Asia since the 1980s, he has extensive experience in the region’s financial markets.
Now based in Manila, Gus focuses on Philippine investment markets – stocks, bonds and foreign exchange.
Understanding that all markets are interconnected, Gus constantly follows the regional and international markets, hoping to bring to his readers a clearer picture of the Philippine markets in relation to the larger, global scheme of things.

49 Comments »

  1. hi gus,

    great work, very educational, interesting, palatable and pedigree commentaries — more power and more “say so’s” ahead — feels good to have a golfing partner like GUS — and I do “say so”

    edfavila

    Comment by ed favila | May 14, 2009 | Reply

  2. Great site! Marizu sent me the link. Do you think it is a good time for us to build now in Manila?

    Comment by Jim Hill | May 19, 2009 | Reply

    • The local economy is resilient. on a global perspective, many investment strategists are recommending asset allocation into Asia Pacific. No offense meant on America, but with the amount of debt that the U.S. government has taken on, the drag on the economy is going to be there for years to come. Asia on the other hand is stil primed for growth. The Philippines had been on the next 11 investment destination of Goldman Sachs. I think the next decade belongs to us out here.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | May 19, 2009 | Reply

  3. very very nice website, more power to people like you who share their expertise for us newbies.

    Comment by ronald ong | September 4, 2009 | Reply

    • Your appreciation of the site is very encouraging. I follow the markets not just for my own positions but in order to give sound advice to clients. I have to be both incisive and objective, so what you hear from me is how I objectively see it.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | September 4, 2009 | Reply

  4. you got an avid reader right here, bookmarked your site the first time i read through your post, and i’ve been doing read backs on your previous thoughts on the past few months. thanks sir, on behalf of all the people that have been enlightened.

    Comment by ronald ong | September 5, 2009 | Reply

    • Ronald,
      Thanks for your encouraging words. My advocacy is for Filipinos to be more oriented to markets in general. God bless you.
      Gus

      Comment by Gus Cosio | September 5, 2009 | Reply

  5. 16 Nov 2009

    Good evening sir:

    Perhaps due to oversight, your article today (16 nov) was dated 26 nov…

    salamat po,

    mojick

    Comment by Leandro A. Mojica, Jr. | November 16, 2009 | Reply

    • Thanks, Mojick. I corrected the mis-type already.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 17, 2009 | Reply

  6. hi gus, great website!

    anyway, which among the philippine mutual funds (equity funds specifically) in your opinion would give me the highest returns within five years, if i buy some shares right now. thank you very much.

    Comment by kenny | November 26, 2009 | Reply

    • Kenny, I have my biases but I’ll be so bold to recommend FAMI’s Save and Learn Equity Fund. I am quite close to the fund manager who runs this fund and I know it to be very systematic and objective in working the market. In other words, it will be there with the trend and will likely avoid or limit downside risk. Of course risk will alway be the character of investing. I just think that in this recommendation, the potential reward can outweigh the risk.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 26, 2009 | Reply

  7. hey gus what do you think about network marketing? ive been invited in Usana Health Sciences, and i would like to know what you think about it. tnx and more power!

    Comment by kenny | January 12, 2010 | Reply

    • Kenny,
      You’re asking me something outside my field of expertise. I’m afraid I cannot comment.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | January 13, 2010 | Reply

  8. Gus,
    You may like this Charlie Munger video on youtube:

    Bud Labitan

    Comment by Bud Labitan | January 15, 2010 | Reply

    • Thanks, Bud. Look forward to seeing your comments on my thoughts as well.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | January 15, 2010 | Reply

  9. hey gus.. i just bought some shares in FAMI’s Save and Learn Equity Fund today, thanks for your recommendation and more power on what you do 🙂 perhaps you can recommend me a book about how to invest successfully in the Philippine Stock Market, it would be of great help.

    Comment by kenny | February 1, 2010 | Reply

  10. Hi Kenny,
    Mutual fund investing is slightly different from direct investing because you’re leaving the maneuvering to the fund manager. Sometimes you’ll see the fund value down because of the market. That is why we recommend peso cost averaging which gives you the opportunity to buy when the market is low as well. The more important thing is to get the longer trend right.
    Anyway, we do an absolute return strategy which means that at the end of the year, we want the portfolio to give a positive return no matter what the market does.
    As to a book on the local stock market, I don’t really know a specific one, but when I find one, I’ll surely let you know.

    Comment by Gus Cosio | February 1, 2010 | Reply

  11. Thank you very much gus for enlightening me, bdwy, in my job as an Information Analyst/Indexer i always receive e-journals or research about Physics and Engineering from abroad of which i read and classify or “index” according to our clients specifications. Since our team received more “projects” lately from our client, my boss gave me e-journals/magazine about foreign investing of w/c i am very interested since i want to invest. The e-magazine i received was “Money Magazine: Investor’s Guide 2010” w/c practically contains forecasts, do’s and donts or guides about investing in stocks, mutual funds, government securities etc. makes me wonder if their ideologies are also applicable in the local setting, say for exaple; if they say that the stock market will perform well this year, does that mean the Philippine stock market will also perform well? Thank you very much and more power Gus! 🙂

    Comment by kenny | February 3, 2010 | Reply

  12. Hi Gus,

    I’d just like to know what do you think is a better investing strategy to espouse here in the Philippines. I’ve been reading value investing books but I’m not sure if the buy and hold strategy is ideal here. Would it be better to be a trader and study technical analysis more?

    Also, you mentioned about peso-cost averaging. If you follow this strategy, do you still need to follow the every day fluctuations of the market? If yes, then to what extent?

    I’m glad I’ve found this site as I’ve been looking for a resource that tackles the PSE specifically. More power to your blog. 🙂

    Comment by Carl Guido | March 14, 2010 | Reply

  13. Carl,
    The Philippine market has so far been a market where gains are not fully sustained after a bull run because the greater part of volume in the past had been foreign fund managers. Since 2007, however, the amount of value turnover has been greatly influenced by local funds which had been quite encouraging. In 2009, the value turnover had been fully dominated by local funds.
    The market is shifting and constructively developing. I think the strategy would be to research the strong stocks and participate in market moves with these strong stocks as core portfolio. It is in these strong stocks where you should do cost averaging.
    Having said that, there are times when the market has not yet fully appreciated the value of a stock. An example was DMC which lingered a long time below 10. When people saw that it was too undervalued, they moved on it. In my opinion, PNB is one of the under appreciated stock. This is one stock that I am holding on to and even cost averaging because when the time comes, I see it doubling.
    But that’s just my opinion.

    Comment by Gus Cosio | March 15, 2010 | Reply

  14. Hi Gus,
    Thanks a lot for a great read everyday. Ireally appreciate your articles. My question is: do you think that the tender offer for the public portion of petron shares will be done by RSA this december ? At 16 % returns, this stock looks great. Will appreciate your comments.

    Comment by bob recio | April 20, 2010 | Reply

    • Bob,
      If the San Miguel experience is an indication, I think it will just be a matter of time before RSA make a tender offer for Petron. Today, PCOR is trading around 6 and the tender indication is 6.85. What you can do is post at 5.90 and see if you get anything. In cases like this, either you make the difference into the tender price or you lose a little. The risk reward ratio is actually very good although your upside is limited to the tender offer price; but hey, it is almost sure money for around an 8 month holding period.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | April 20, 2010 | Reply

  15. Hi Gus,

    Great reading. However, I still prefer our lively discussions over wine.

    Let us have dinner when you are not so busy. I have a few questions to ask you.

    God Bless!

    Lon

    Comment by Lon | May 6, 2010 | Reply

  16. Hey Lon,
    Glad to see that you read the blog. Yes, I’ll get in touch with you.

    Comment by Gus Cosio | May 6, 2010 | Reply

  17. I’m a newbie and recently i have been reading and following your blogs…..i have been in some forums dealing with the market and i must say that your site is just as informative if not more precise without the “NOISE”. I have been only trading for a little over a year without guidance and training and have lost some money but my capital somehow is still intact as my pessimistic mind have worked in my favor.
    I stumbled upon your site a few months ago and how I wished to have followed your advices and not to have traded with my emotions, pretty sure i would have gained quite a hefty sum. This time as the market is in its volatile stage, i am certain that i will keep myself abreast with your blog and consider your choices, thanks for all the free advice.

    Comment by ENRICO FERNANDEZ | May 18, 2010 | Reply

    • Enrico,
      You are very welcome to this site. Let us try to learn from each other and from those who give regular comments here.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | May 19, 2010 | Reply

  18. Hi! I’d like to subscribe to your blog updates. Your very informative articles are certainly of big help to me and our sales team 🙂

    Comment by Jung Fernando | June 4, 2010 | Reply

    • Jung,
      You are welcome to visit this blog anytime.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | June 4, 2010 | Reply

  19. Enjoyed reading your blog. Very informative. BTW, are you related to Mr. Cosio who was with BOI before.. and also a golfer.

    Comment by anna gimenez | July 8, 2010 | Reply

    • Yes Anna,
      My dad was with the BOI until he retired in 1985. He’s 90 already and is unable to play golf anymore. He’s still alright, but old age has caught up with him. You are welcome to visit my blog anytime. I hope to make it relevant for all who read.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | July 11, 2010 | Reply

  20. hello,sir, i have an investment with fami, equity fund, do u think we will have a strong market until the end of the year,sir?

    Comment by ben lopez | July 26, 2010 | Reply

    • Ben,
      You can sleep soundly with FAMI equity fund. We are looking at 3800 by year end, but we are not sitting on our laurels. Our fund managers are working very hard to keep the gains and bring more to our fund holders.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | July 26, 2010 | Reply

  21. Sir, I would like to ask if you have plans to conduct stock trading seminar here in Davao City. Hoping for your reply.. Thank you and God bless.

    Comment by Glenn P. Apilan | July 28, 2010 | Reply

    • Glenn,
      If you organize something which can be attended by a number of people, I can come and hold a session. May I suggest that you coordinate with a school, perhaps Ateneo de Davao and ask them to help you organize a seminar. We can then do something in coordination with the Philippine Stock Exchange.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | July 28, 2010 | Reply

  22. Hi sir,

    I happen to come across your blog from one stock trading forum. I am also into stock market but trading purely on technical indicators. Reading your blog, I am amazed on how you analyze the fundamentals of a company. I would like to learn fundamental analysis, but dont know which reference material is good for beginners like me. May you suggest a reference that could be of help for a beginner like me? Thanks you =)

    Comment by Raymond | August 22, 2010 | Reply

  23. Sir, I would like to ask if you have plans to conduct stock trading seminar in Davao OR Cebu City this year. Hoping for your reply.. Thank you and God bless.

    Comment by Nin | September 30, 2010 | Reply

  24. I would like to ask if you have plans to conduct stock trading seminar in Davao OR Cebu City this year. We are very much interested. Hoping for your reply. Thank you!

    Comment by Nin | September 30, 2010 | Reply

    • Nin,
      If you can find a group to organize one, I will gladly come. To make it worth my while though, there must be around 50 participants.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 18, 2010 | Reply

  25. Hi Gus,can you comment on LPZ and SMDC.tks

    Comment by jack | October 23, 2010 | Reply

    • Jack,
      LPZ is a recovery stock that is probably in the middle stage of its recovery. It had been a battered stock for a long time because of what the market viewed as bad moves in its subsidiaries. All these were reversed when FPH sold its majority stake in MER. LPZ is still seeking its real value. SMDC on the other hand is the best play in the mid-range property market which will likely do very well because of very low interest rates. I think SMDC will be a slow but sure bet for the coming 12 months.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | October 23, 2010 | Reply

      • I agree. LPZ is currently very undervalued. Will take some time for the market to realize its true value, but it is quite a gem at its current price. 🙂

        Comment by D' Intelligent Investor | December 31, 2010

  26. I’m an OFW based in UAE and has been buying PSE stocks since 2007. I first saw your blog from the re-designed web site of First Metro Securities and was hooked ever since. Your advice gives me much more confidence in what I’m doing as I’m a value investor who goes for the fundamentals. Thanks a lot for the insights. I hope you’ll continue this blog for a long time and hope also that more OFWs will set aside a portion of their earmings for investment purposes be it in stocks or in any instrument to help not only themselves but also the Philippine economy

    Comment by Emil | November 15, 2010 | Reply

  27. this is really a very good site! your commentaries, sir, are objective and i can sense a lot of wisdom in your blogs, i am a newbie and have been trying different sorts of strategies in trading, i do believe in intermarket analysis because everything is somehow linked/related in one way or another, can you recommend a book that i can read to further my knowledge on this subject?

    Comment by henson | November 18, 2010 | Reply

  28. Hi Gus,

    I’m using on-line stock trading as it is more convenient for me. However, I just want to know how safe they are particularly those operating in the Philippines.

    Another thing I want to ask you is that when you sell stocks in on-line trading, they already get a portion of the proceeds as tax. Do I need to pay tax again when I file my income tax?

    Thanks

    Comment by Emil | November 20, 2010 | Reply

  29. In recommending SMPH and SM, don’t you think we should consider that it’s PE is already in the mid, if not, high 20s? Don’t you think this is too high considering that earnings has grown, and is expected to further grow only at 10% to 12%?

    Thanks

    Comment by Bryan | December 8, 2010 | Reply

  30. thanks

    Comment by Maui | December 14, 2010 | Reply

  31. this is interesting

    Comment by blackhorse | December 14, 2010 | Reply

  32. Hi sir Gus!

    I’ve been an avid follower of your site since my friend recommended it to me a few months ago, and I must say, your thoughts on the market are very insightful. I’m 19, but I’m really interested in understanding how the market works. I’ve invested in both the FAMI Equity and Balanced Fund last May ’09, and I’m really glad to see how the returns have turned out so far.

    I’ve saved a good amount outside this investment and plan on “getting the feel” of investing directly in our stock market. I’ve been reading “The Intelligent Investor” and some of your past blogs, and I think I have a pretty good idea which stocks to start with. (VLL, DMCI, DGTL, MPI, PX, some financials due to the fundamentals of these companies and your assessment of their value) Any tips on how I should allocate my investment and do you recommend any other good books to read?

    Thanks so much sir! I hope your blog continues to inspire others as it has done for me.

    Comment by Don | December 30, 2010 | Reply

  33. Sir Gus, I always knew one day you would somehow make your facility with English a key foundation of something. I sure hope one of the business dailies give you a regular column. Dagdagan mo naman ng wisdom about how financial markets impact on the lives of those outside of the stock market. Mas maraming fence sitters like me.

    Comment by raoul | February 10, 2011 | Reply


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