Gus Cosio says so

Ideas on the Philippine Stock Market

Enjoying the view

3:00pm   Tuesday    7 July 2009     PSEi     2471,76 (+0.92%)

What really impressed me today was the move of AC which closed at 277.50.  Last Friday AC traded to a low of 260 and today’s move only tells me that investors who are bent on gaining exposure to the market are picking this stock.  Unlike MER which is obviously in play, AC merely represents a surrogate for the market in general.  The underlying message that I see is that whatever mixed sentiment I am perceiving, bottom line is people are happy owning good stocks.

I am constructive in this market, but I can’t help myself from wanting to time my new entries.  In spite of a 22 point rise in the index, some of my favorites – GLO, TEL, MBT and FLI are being left behind.  Likewise, the value turnover does not really turn me on.  I guess patience really needs to be tested.

Second line counters which have been holding up are PNB, MEG, and SCC.  I think they are trading at their strong support levels.  What could make this market go down?  I think that as we see major economies fail to show some kind of growth in the near term, the market will have no choice but to rate itself downward.

My singular reason for holding back my exposure, i.e. keeping it in cash, is because rallies do not go on indefinitely.  We’ve seen the index surge to 2626 and come back to 2353.  My hang-up is that I can’t seem to ignore where we rallied from which is 1759.  An 867 point rally just has to be consolidated either downwards or sideways.  I’m taking the view that we could still move lower.  At the very least, we would move sideways, and that would mean that keeping myself in the sidelines won’t make me lose much.

At the end of the day, it will still be the one holding the cash who can seize the opportunities.


July 7, 2009 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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