Falling in love? Happy Valentine!
5:00pm Monday 14 February 2011
The rise in the market today should give relief to many investors. The decline which we have seen so far does not look so precipitous after all. I would caution, however, that this may just be a corrective rally – either people buying back positions sold earlier or bottom picking for high conviction stocks. From today’s value turnover of Php 3.74 billion, it does not look like market sentiment has changed substantially. Furthermore, we continue to see net foreign selling which indicates that the move out of our market into the developed markets is not yet over.
People remain wary and the problem with sentiment like this is that it invites traders to sell on strength. Judging from today’s price action, I do not think that local traders are fully convinced that the market has turned. Much of today’s gains was on account of AC, ALI and SMPH. ALI had good volume but AC and SMPH did not have such impressive turnover. MBT also accounted some positive index points, but it really looks more like a rebound from oversold levels.
Nevertheless, there are some double bottoms forming notably in property stocks SLI and FLI. For active traders, FLI could see a run from this point which makes it a good trading buy. TEL, RLC, MBT and DGTL look to me as being very much oversold making downside risk on these stocks pretty limited. EDC is a stock that has had quite a long period of consolidation and may also be approaching oversold levels. It looks well supported below 5.50. If LPZ holds at these levels, we could see it move up a bit since 4.50 appears to be a formidable support level.
For PNB followers, I think the juice may already have been squeezed out of this stock. I think it could trade below 45 before it moves forward because interest in the stock is not as wide as in 2010. perhaps, followers have shifted to another bank. BPI is usually a boring stock, and it remains to be. It will probably hold its own if the market turns for the worse. I think people are willing to hold rather than sell the stock in anticipation of its regular cash dividend in March. BPI remains to be a defensive stock.
Among Asian markets, we are seeing recovery today after the MSCI ex Japan lost 2.6% last week which is one of the biggest weekly drop of the index. Investors also saw good news in the 51% increase of China’s imports in January. That trend is quite favorable for Philippine exporters as China take in more imports from here.
I hope that sentiment will start to turn already because stocks in the PSE are at levels where downside risk could be limited. Unfortunately, because of the experience in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, people have a very hard time shaking out inflationary expectations from their mind that it sometimes becomes a self-fulfilling phenomenon. Fortunately, oil prices, as reflected by the WestTexas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract, is trading lower at 85.22. As long as one is aware of the downside risk, it could be profitable to trade the rebound which may be forming right here. Just remember, a good investor never falls in love with stocks in his or her portfolio.
Happy Valentine.
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Gus Cosio at the Merrill Lynch 2008 Rising Stars Conference in Singapore
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Gus Cosio says so 
I’m glad we had a green Valentine hehe 🙂
Now that the Egypt situation has subsided a bit, it seems our problem now still remains to be the foreign selling and bearish market sentiment. Picking stocks with good fundamentals seems to be a good move nowadays.
Do you think Egypt situation will still cause some impact in our markets in the near future?
yes it does. It affects long term oil supplies to europe and shipping traffic from the mediterranean.
what happened to the supposed merger between pnb and allied bank?
May I know why ALI hasn’t performed as well as other property stocks? Also what are it’s prospects for the year? Thank you.
ALI’s PE is very high. Compared to RLC and VLL which are below 10x PEx its relatively expensive
Happy Valentines to all.
I think and hope that the market will improve in the next couple of days. We had long enough “Valentine celebration”. Investors are itching for some greens. 🙂
Happy Valentines sir Gus, may you have a wonderful day with your loving wife 😀
Hapi Valentines sir Gus…I like your stock picks today like Lpz,smph,bpi and Tel..Lpz and Tel formed triple bottom…hehe..Gud Luck to everybody may the Good lord bless us always…
Hi Sir Gus! My first post in your very informative blog, met you already in person during the Feb. 02 seminar. Cool!
It’s valentine alright. My portfolio is all red (MEG,MBT,ALI,ORE,SMPH). Looks like i’ll have to wait for a bounce, sell it and buy at again after it goes down 10% to 20%. Is this strategy good for the current market situation?
what if the market doesn’t go back down after you sell? then you buy higher?
Those are the kind of decisions that you have to make each day either as an investor or a trader.
that’s what I did…
I sold half of my NIKL in anticipation that it will go down. It did, but I missed it when it went back up to my target purchase price, so I had to buy it at a higher price.
No regrets though. 😀
I’ve thought of that few days back for some of my holdings to raise cash but hold on to them for the meantime because of the bounce. It may be a viable strategy and I’am thinking of unloading up to 40% of my holdings to minimize being whipsawed either way.
it might be that by the time you start unloading, the market would be on the way to continue its uptrend; in that case, you still get whipsawed
yes, chris munti, that’s one of the possibilities.
that’s why trading stocks is so challenging and difficult because you’ll never know what exactly is going to happen.
but personally, my opinion is same with yours.
maybe what Alvin can do is identify the stock that has the least chance of going up and sell some or all his shares of that/those stocks.
I think the consolidation (including foreign selling and egypt crisis) was favorable for us local investors (with longterm outlook) since i, for one, have been able to buy blue chip (MPI, MEG, VLL and EDC) stocks at very CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP prices. My earnings will be 20% more in 9 months since i bought these stocks at almost 20% discount. If average analyst estimates (FMSEC, reuters, COL) comes true on september 2011, I should be earning at least 40% from this stocks.
The right question is, am I too early buying? May everyday be a valentines day!!!
I think it’s the right time, especially when y0u have bought stocks on feb 10, i think another bloodbath could be the bottom of this and when that time came you should be holding a good extra cash
I wish investing in stocks would be this simple – earning 20 percent based on analysts estimates with your own timetable. Good luck though!
cj,investing in stocks that would never be that simple. it’s generally based on perception. the key is, you should have conviction on your decisions. For me, I have conviction in my decision. What I am saying is, even if those stocks were not down, i would be still buying them and luckily the price were 20% cheaper for the price i am willing to pay. only time can tell what lies ahead
Sir, i’m 25 yrs old and i’m starting to accumulate JFC for 12 yrs, i also want to accumulate another 2 stocks for 5 yrs only, what best stocks do u think should i buy?, thanks!
I would look at DMC, MPI and EDC. You should consider RLC also. I would favor TEL over JFC though. JFC margins depend so much on commodity prices. TEL can create value from innovations on technology.
Hi Mr. Cosio. Would FPH be a good long term investment? Say 5-10 years?
I am not a fan of FPH. I would favor EDC over FPH any day.
^ which is precisely a big part of the reason why FPH is much way undervalued than EDC… compare it to the books: you have FPH trading now at around 30% discount from its tangible value; and EDC trading almost 4 times its true worth. if you are a buyer at divisoria, which brand would you buy?
hi chris!
just to add to the healthy discussion of comparing EDC and FPH..
FPH’s revenues and earnings have been inconsistent for the past 3 years, while EDC’s revenues and earnings have been consistently growing..
i would put more weight on the company’s ability to earn rather than its price to book value because to me, an asset isnt much of an asset if it isnt giving you earnings up to its full potential..but thats just me 🙂
cliffhanger,
FPH earned from selling its shares in Meralco, didn’t it? And I believe there is nothing with that move as a holding company. The fact that it had earned by managing Meralco for a long time is testament of its consistency. We may be looking at the word “consistency” in different ways.
Sir Gus, for me, I am accumulating FPH because of a good 2010 estimated eps of 19.68/share with P:E of 3.14x. I has improved greatly from a loss of 5.37/shr in 2008, to earning P10.95/shr in 2009 then going to post nearly 20/shr profit in 2010 excluding the one time gain of P22B in the first qtr of 2010.
@chris
i just look at the numbers for consistency 🙂
another thing to think about is what FPH is actually doing with the loads of cash it generated from selling MER. Let’s look at the numbers again: Debt/Equity has been falling since 2nd quarter 2009 (good sign? you bet! paying down debts is always a good thing). Yet it still has extra cash until now, which it has been using consistently to buyback shares. Is that good? Yes. By taking back outstanding shares from the public into its treasury, FPH is enhancing shareholder value per share [by paring down the denominator when you calculate book-value-per-share] 😀
All of us have their own reasons for prefering a stock over the other. Gus is merely say he prefers EDC over FPH, I’m sure he has his reasons. I think one of the reasons is it’s probably the only GREEN stock in the market. Maybe, going Green is the way of the future. As always in Stock Trading, It’s you who makes the final decision when clicking the BUY or SELL Button, not Gus. Only the Market will prove who was the more profitable pick. Thus, we can only make intelligent guesses thru research and data. Like I always say, INFORMATION is the most valuable commodity I know.
check FPH’s track record if you plan on holding it long term 🙂
A stock may be expensive against another stock, but it does not mean that the cheaper stock will perform better. You must watch the current price action of a stock and the kind of investor following that it has. For a long time ALI traded at a multiple far greater than AC. So did BPI, and most of the time both ALI and BPI outperformed AC. You just have to follow the price relationships.
^ which is precisely a big part of the reason why FPH is much way undervalued than EDC… compare it to the books: you have FPH trading now at around 30% discount from its tangible value; and EDC trading almost 4 times its true worth. if you are a buyer at divisoria, which brand would you buy?
In the past five years, FPH has always traded below its book value (your so-called tangible value/”true worth”) except for 2007, when the market was more tolerable of higher (PE and PB) multiples. If its historical trend is to trade below its BV, then it seems logical that it continues to do so unless its future prospects change.
if you check more closely, for the last 3 years, FPH has been trading below its tangible value only since the first quarter of 2010… the most recent book value of around 92 has been calculated without counting inventories, preferred shares, goodwill and intangible assets; and by only considering income generated by equity holders of the parent company (in other words, a clear underestimation of FPH’s “true worth”)… what also doesn’t make sense to me is why EDC is given more importance, when in fact its majority owner are the Lopezes via Red Vulcan and FGEN 🙂
if you check more closely, for the last 3 years, FPH has been trading below its tangible value only since the first quarter of 2010… the most recent book value of around 92 has been calculated without counting inventories, preferred shares, goodwill and intangible assets; and by only considering income generated by equity holders of the parent company (in other words, a clear underestimation of FPH’s “true worth”)… what also doesn’t make sense to me is why EDC is given more importance, when in fact its majority owner are the Lopezes via Red Vulcan and FGEN, hence ultimately via FPH 🙂
if you check more closely, for the last 3 years, FPH has been trading below its tangible value only since the first quarter of 2010… the most recent book value of around 92 has been calculated without counting inventories, preferred shares, goodwill and intangible assets; and by only considering income generated by equity holders of the parent company (in other words, a clear underestimation of FPH’s “true worth”)… what also doesn’t make sense to me is why EDC is given more importance, when in fact its majority owner are the Lopezes via Red Vulcan and FGEN; so ultimately via FPH 🙂
if you check more closely, for the last 3 years, FPH has been trading below its tangible value only since the first quarter of 2010… the most recent book value of around 92 has been calculated without counting inventories, preferred shares, goodwill and intangible assets; and by only considering income generated by equity holders of the parent company (in other words, a clear underestimation of FPH’s “true worth”)… what also doesn’t make sense to me is why EDC is given more importance, when in fact its majority owner are the Lopezes via Red Vulcan and FGEN; hence, ultimately FPH! 🙂
FPH also has a buyback program for the next 2 years, so ultimately, it should translate into less shares in the market and more value to the stock.
i guess that is the problem with holding companies, it takes a while before people realize its true value. the component companies will first benefit before you see the gain in the parent companies
People see huge growth potential with EDC so it is more favored but later on, this growth will also go to its parent FPH
@ chris,
most probably, the reason why they chose EDC over FPH although FPH owns a big chunck of EDC is because EDC itself earns a good amount of money on its own, while on the other hand, eventhough FPH earns well, EDC earns better in proportion to its capitalization.
.. and if ever the lopezes do decide to sell their remaining MER shares, it will be FPH who would benefit
rodimus,
i agree… and we are not even really sure if FPH would sell its remaining 6% stake of Meralco. who knows, with its floating cash, it might be accumulating back Meralco shares from the public as clandestinely as possible. 😉
Kindly enlighten us on what happened to the ORE mining trip last weekend? Are the fund managers not satisfied with what on sight? ORE’s prices seem to go southward…
bloody,
i believe a guy named “Zandro Zulueta” is among the people who went to check out the ORE site… you may consult with him from absolutetraders.com
Hi Sir Gus, any insights on ORE? what’s the initial report? I am just wondering if ORE paid for the “trip” of the analysts.
If ORE did pay the “trip”, it is not a remote possibility that ORE could pay for the publicity written by these analysts 😐
if you check more closely, for the last 3 years, FPH has been trading below its tangible value only since the first quarter of 2010… the most recent book value of around 92 has been calculated without counting inventories, preferred shares, goodwill and intangible assets; and by only considering income generated by equity holders of the parent company (in other words, a clear underestimation of FPH’s “true worth”)… what also doesn’t make sense to me is why EDC is given more importance, when in fact its majority owner are the Lopezes via Red Vulcan and FGEN 🙂
if you check more closely, for the last 3 years, FPH has been trading below its tangible value only since the first quarter of 2010… the most recent book value of around 92 has been calculated without counting inventories, preferred shares, goodwill and intangible assets; and by only considering income generated by equity holders of the parent company (in other words, a clear underestimation of FPH’s “true worth”)… what also doesn’t make sense to me is why EDC is given more importance, when in fact its majority owner are the Lopezes via Red Vulcan and FGEN; so ultimately via FPH! 🙂
sir gus,
what are your thoughts on JGS, VLL, and DGTL at their current prices?
DGTL is very oversold! from the past week, there is always around several million shares being sold at the last minute between 1.28 to 1.30 and there will always be around 6 M shares left unsold. Heavy sellers are from ASIA Sec, BDO and Phil Equity Partners. from the looks of the closing, it seems they’re selling is finally over. (maybe still a few hundred thousand shares left.. but expect an upward trend starting tomorrow for DGTL. Hopefully back to the 1.50 level.
my comment is based on today’s closing.
Pinay,
I like all three except I’m underwater in all three stocks, but because I like them, I am just waiting for the selling to stop before I average down. I still have some cash to deploy.
Valuations-wise all three stocks followed the market lower. I like all three stocks and I am willing to be patient.
the most irrational thing about FPH right now is the public perception of its management. In my opinion, the management is doing reasonably well in keeping the company as healthy and transparent as possible for its shareholders… and when the public is unanimous about a perception that is inconsistent with fundamentals, it is most of the time wrong about setting the fair price of the company. 😀
i really liked fph, it was one of my core holdings last year.
the problem was, it got negative publicity from the FPIC pipeline controversy which dragged fora couple of months and it has not recovered yet from the after effects.
even now, i like fph because it is fundamentally sound with a very low p/e.
based on what i read, FPIC only contributes around 5% to FPH’s revenues.
so the main concern really is the negative sentiment of investors plus maybe some other factors….
ricky,
rest assured, the business of FPH does not solely rely on that pipeline. even if that pipeline is completely put out of service, it would hardly dent FPH value and earnings performance. as per latest disclosure, revenues generated from FPIC only account about 2% of FPH’s total generated revenues. 😀
Fph has proven to have very poor management track record. This is the same group that couldn’t manage MER profitably. The same group that over leveraged to take control of EDC. The same group who couldn’t get it’s act together in the pipeline mess. This is the same group that almost brought Maynilad into bankruptcy. This is the same group that has almost lost it’s entire investment in Bayantel. And this is the same group that now run EDC.
^ now you see how high an expectation the public has on such a highly publicized company as FPH. I wonder if they would say the same for the group that manages NI, GEO, MIC?? what have these companies been doing for a long time; yet they are as popular as pancakes 😀
Most of investors in this blog repeteadly comment on PE ratios and book values.Nothing wrong with that except that it is too one dimensional. I have never heard anyone speak of excellent or poor management or their track record. Companies are made of people and they will decide the fate of your investment. Some companies are given a premium for this and other a discount.
A company can be valued cheaper than the rest but if ultimately it still cant perform it will remain cheap.
CJ CH,
it is hard to quantify “track record”; the best data we have about that is hearsay. but good management should reflect in the fundamental ratios we can see from the company’s financial reports… as a corollary, a company that is doing well in terms of asset acquisitions, debt reductions, cash flow, and earnings over several quarters should be indicative of a management that has “good track record”.
perhaps you can further elaborate, what you exactly mean by “track record” so we have a common ground of understanding. 🙂
as for me, the Lopezes’ decision to sell majority stake in Meralco, Tollways, Maynilad reflects timely and appropriate decisions of the management… FPH’s divestment of such investments made sense because the growth prospects of these companies are not anymore as bright as before. Meralco and Maynilad, I believe, have reached a point of saturation and maturity as utility companies [they would of course still offer steady cash flows to MPI], but higher potential for growth now rests on the quest for alternative ways of power generation which FPH (as well as other big companies such as SMC, AEV, PLDT and even MBT) now seems to be pouring their money into 😀
Track record in growing the business with good return on equities. Managing risk. Timely and adequate disclosures. Being fair to minor shareholders. I agree that measurement may be qualitative in some aspects.
FPH had to dispose of its assets such as the toll way and Meralco because it was forced to for it to save FGEN and in turn EDC from maturing obligations. BPC did not get anything from the sale of Maynilad. Maynilad and Bayantel were bringing to BPC down to its knees. This group did not learn from the 97 crisis and then repeated the same thing ten years later. Hopefully, this doesnt happen again for the sake of investors.
cj ch,
thank you for the clarification, and your criteria for “track record” is reasonable. however, i’m not so certain how those criteria could distinguish the Lopezes from the Aboitiz.
Aboitiz’ management have grown their core businesses steadily over the decade. They have already divested from the shipping industry where they have not been profitable. The management discipline and culture of this conglomerate have allowed this company to grow from Php1.50/share to Php35/share while rewarding shareholders with rising annual dividends.
Unlike the Lopez’s management of BPC (-FPH,FGEN,Bayantel,Maynilad,ABS-CBN,Meralco,recently EDC) who unfortunately destroyed shareholder value and have returned virtually nothing to shareholders over the past decade. What hurts is that Lopez management is rewarded with hefty salaries,options, and huge bonuses compared to industry when they have done poorly vis a vis competition and to the brink of losing their shirts. Minor shareholders are left holding the bag.
ok got your point. but when you say “returned virtually nothing to shareholders” that statement is indeed true for BPC (now LPZ) because of their 0% dividend yield. but FPH is a different story. they have been consistently paying out dividends and surprisingly at a higher dividend-rate than AEV ever had; that despite the fact that the share price of FPH now is about 35% higher than AEV…. in regards to salaries, I can’t really see how you are making a comparison. I would appreciate if you could show me the numbers. Yet it seems irrelevant because common shareholders get dividends anyway from FPH (as well as FPHP preferred).
i don’t know where the apparent hatred on the Lopez management seems to come from but from an objective standpoint, FPH at its current price is a much more attractive stock not only in terms of tangible-book-value but also in terms of their growth prospect in the area of home-based Solar-Power generation (via subsidiary Philec) that addresses the demand for a high-yielding alternative source to hydroelectric power in times of drought and El Nino (which the Philippines experiences on a regular basis; I can’t imagine these brownouts happening again just because the “Angat” dam level is too low). No other company, currently involved with the power industry, seems to be involved in tapping the high potential of home-based electric grid in reducing power rates. This can be done by providing incentives (in the form of rebates or rate reductions) to homeowners who have solar panels installed on their roof to generate electricity, and share some surplus into the power grid. Ironically, this power-sharing system based on solar-electricity has been implemented for a long time in European countries such as Germany where there isn’t as much sunshine as there is in the Philippines.
Lets put things into perspective:
If you invested php1.0m in LPZ in 2000 you would now have Php 600k.
If you invested php1.0m in FPH in 2000 you would now have Php4.0M.plus cash div
If you invested php1.0m in EDC in 2007 you would now have Php1.4M.plus cash div
If you invested php1.0m in FGEN in 2005 you would now have Php1.3M (but there was a rights offering where investors had to cough up more capital)
If you invested Php1.0m in AEV in 2000 you would have Php20.00M plus cash div
If you invested Php1.0m in AP in 2007 you would now have Php5.0M.
I have no hatred for the Lopez group. I am just stating facts in their ability to deliver shareholder value. FPH was”forced” to make cash dividends to help save BPC from debtors. They had to sell Meralco and the tollway to save EDC and pay obligations of FGEN and Red Vulcan. Look at the profits MER and Maynilad (via DMC) are generating with new management after less than 2 years. As for compensation, check the audited FS and compare.
AEV has consistently brought growth in all its major business segments via AP, UBP and unlisted PILMICO. The challenge is to find other gems such as these.
I rest my case. Let us make the market decide the future price performance. We are not investing primarily for their history but for their future, you agree? 😐