Gus Cosio says so

Ideas on the Philippine Stock Market

Common Sense Investing – Announcement

The Money Market Association of the Philippines (MART) is celebrating the Money Market Consciousness Week on November 15 to 21, 2010 (next week).  They have asked to conduct an investment forum  for common investors on November 17, 2010 from 1:30 P.M. to 4:00 P.M., at the 5/F, Podium 4, Yuchengco Institute for Advanced Studies, RCBC Plaza, Ayala Avenue, Makati City.

I have entitled the forum “Creating Wealth Through Common Sense Investing” and would like to announce to those who are interested to attend that you can make reservation through the MART secretariat at telephone numbers: 894-0148, 813-2571, 813-7479.

I understand that there is limited seating so if you are interested, please make an early call with your personal details.

Thank you.

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November 10, 2010 - Posted by | Financial markets in Asia

55 Comments »

  1. See you there Sir!

    Comment by BJ Evangelista | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  2. Cool will try to ask for a partial ‘leave’ for this.

    Thanks!

    Comment by Pau | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  3. Top Slice SCC buy Petron…SCC is very expensive right now.

    Comment by Jack Bogle | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Jack,
      Why on earth should people buy Petron? The stock has lost following over the past few years.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 11, 2010 | Reply

      • instead of buying petron, it may be better to just buy SMC

        Comment by rodimus | November 11, 2010

      • Sir Gus,

        I think he lost on that stock. 😀 He’s just creating a trend… Hehehe! 🙂

        Comment by PoGGs | November 17, 2010

  4. Hi Sir Gus,

    Would there be an entrance/participation fee? If there is, how much would it be?

    Comment by Jonathan | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • The sponsor is MART. I am just the guest speaker. Please call the number above for information. They just asked me to announce it in this blog.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  5. Hi Sir Gus,

    Any idea until when will this market correction be?
    (my brain is hurting from the correction :S)

    Comment by jamezu | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • James,
      Remember, this correction was bound to happen. That was why I regularly reminded people to keep some cash handy. Truthfully, I’m already averaging down on some stocks.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 11, 2010 | Reply

      • Hi James,

        Technical data points to 4000 as psychological support(or 3860+ for price channel). The important thing right now is we have consolidation. If PSEi continues to rise without consolidation, it could lead to bubble burst (and we all dont like it to happen).

        Comment by Raymond | November 14, 2010

    • yeah, i’m starting to think it would be good to set aside some funds. the problem is that its hard not to be 100% committed especially when you see a stock you’d like to own selling for cheap..

      but maybe i’ll start this next year too. set aside a cookie jar labeled ‘funds fer consolidation’.

      Comment by jasper | November 11, 2010 | Reply

      • Please allow me to share my strategy in dealing with the volatile swings of the market. This is somehow an unsolicited advise.

        What I would do is top slice some profits,say 20% of my shares, and use those same funds to buy back the stock at a lower price. In that way I am able to increase my shares and average down my price in case the stock consolidates.

        Comment by Seth | November 12, 2010

  6. blood on the streets, and it is mine. (ouch)

    Comment by jovy | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  7. its a test of our investing endurance..nice to hear that u.s. investors are faling out from our market for the reason that u.s. earnings are improving. when the us economy improves the local market bull run will be wild. stand firm fellow and continue to ride your war horses it seems along the way we were ambushed. lucky are those who survived. go ahead fulfill your noble mission..make money for your good and the good of our country.

    Comment by richard | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  8. Hi Sir Gus,

    i am a big FAN of yours, looking forward to see you Sir on Nov 17.

    Thanks,
    ernie ang

    Comment by ernie | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  9. Is it better to average down on MPI or DMC? Based on my computations, MPI is already quite overbought and expensive.. correct me if im wrong guys..

    Thanks

    Comment by Ria | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • My technical data and fundamental data tells me its a good buy at 3.80+.

      Technically speaking, it is oversold. Fundamentally speaking, check the latest financial report and compute the PE ratio using the 2010 EPS forecast (try even further to project the EPS for 6-months data)

      😉

      Comment by Raymond | November 14, 2010 | Reply

  10. i welcome the correction, since the market is overbought i have been anticipating the consolidation of the blue chips. i believe that the week correction will pave a way for a new momentum going forward. i continue to like AGI, MER, MPI, BPI, VLL, FLI, AEV AT, and PIP. i have reduced my stockholdings from 38 to 28. EDC still my favorite and biggest chunk, i commit this for long term..a year maybe.

    Comment by art | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi wat ’bout FGEN? is it a good idea to invest heavily on this stock for long-term? i have been holding-0n to this stock and waiting for it go up.

      Comment by Cristina Verano | November 11, 2010 | Reply

      • I guess it will make its big move prior to Feb 2011 once they completed their debt restucturing program.

        If market will be generous this coming December, I would probably move some fund to this security.

        Comment by Raymond | November 14, 2010

  11. Sure ako next week green na sya. Kasi labasan na ng bonus at sigurado madami pambili mga traders…hehehe.

    Good luck to everyone!

    Comment by Lyndon | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  12. I have a question regarding meralco. Why is it all over the place? A few months ago it was 180 trending upward till it reached 220 or so. Then it seems now its going back to 180.. It seems very volatile and swinging plus, minus 20%..

    wonder if that is only because that is this particular stocks nature.

    Comment by jasper | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • Some rumor about it being replaced by AP in the MSCI index.

      Comment by Warren | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  13. Sir Gus is it correct to assume that power shortages only benefit power generation companies (without take or pay agreements) but not companies with power transmission assets?

    Thanks.

    Comment by Warren | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  14. tel at 2380!!!

    wow, the consolidation is still going on. It seems that yesterday was too early too buy. Should have bought today..

    Comment by jasper | November 12, 2010 | Reply

    • DMC was a good buy at 33.10.. I missed MER at 193.
      If only I have more funds handy….

      Comment by Johann | November 13, 2010 | Reply

  15. is this a sign that the bull run is over? or is this a marshmallow test?

    Comment by C | November 12, 2010 | Reply

    • if this is the end of the bull run, then it wasn’t a bull after all but instead its a calf..

      Comment by jasper | November 12, 2010 | Reply

    • I dont think its the end of bull run. Market trend is still intact. With last week’s consolidation, prices are moving to a more reasonable level. By the way, check foreign buying – it is still positive. It means that local investor/trader are the ones taking their profits (probably to book their gains from September positions).

      Check PSE daily quotation report, you will notice that foreigners are taking what the locals are liquidating 😉

      Comment by Raymond | November 14, 2010 | Reply

  16. What an unpredictable market! A month or so investors were talking about a rally that could extend to 2011! Too much blood has been spilled this week.

    Comment by Seth | November 12, 2010 | Reply

    • Well, that does’nt mean that there will be no correction.

      Comment by Raymond | November 14, 2010 | Reply

  17. Sir Gus, what are your thoughts on LPZ? Thank you sir 🙂

    Comment by KennyV | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  18. Please someone enlighten me on why are our local mining stocks not picking up despite global mining stocks soaring with commodity prices?

    Comment by Seth | November 12, 2010 | Reply

    • There is a negative sentimet in the PSE market. So everything is being affected. Very few would dare to buy stocks, instead of buying they tend to cut losses. If things stabilizes then this people will start buying again so the market will shift from negative sentiment to positive.

      One thing that I noticed is that big fundies starts to pocket their gain (profit taking). If I recall, they started in TEL, AGI, MPI, DMC and now URC. I dont know what is in the minds of this big fundies, if they will exit in our market to shift in other markets, or they will again reposition themselves soon, time will know.

      Comment by John | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  19. market continues to decline. 90+ pts. decrease.

    Comment by trixa | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  20. ore is now at 3.6 – its nearing the target price of 3.5.. come come come..

    Comment by jasper | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  21. as for the average investor in his day-to-day dealings in the marketplace, Warren Buffett has these words of caution and warning:
    “The market, like Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord, the market doest not forgive those who know not what they do.”

    Comment by richard | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  22. What’s wrong is that Maiki Oreta is on leave for a vacation! Poor Martha, had to deliver the bad news all week long. hehehe ^^

    When Maiki’s back, the PSEi will be green again 😉 (Martha, please take no offense, I love you as well ^^)

    Happy weekend everyone. Think green ^^

    Comment by Money Magnets| Sun | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  23. I’m not sure but, I think MPI has gone down below book value. You can pick up an excellent monopoly for cheap.. hmm.. the problem is I have too much MPI already. I dunno if its prudent to boost it to 40-50% of my portfolio. I really like it though.

    Comment by jasper | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  24. Some are speculating that the PSE will go all the way down to 3800 and resume its upward trend next year. if that’s the case, should we sell now to protect some profits?

    Im already averaging down on some stocks specifically MPI and DMC (willing to hold these issues for the LT regardless of the index), same with ORE.

    As for AGI and MEG, my average is quite low. Sir gus do you think its better if I already topslice on my profts on these one?

    Thanks!

    Comment by Cholo | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  25. Hi Sir,

    I was thinking of 2 scenarios that can happen next week…

    1. As what Cholo said, if the market continues to wobble, then people would eventually sell to protect profits.

    2. If the market bounces back, would people still sell due to their fears that the bounce would eventually go to a dip?

    Either way, i still see people selling. But then again i am just guessing here… what do you think?

    Thanks

    Comment by ria | November 12, 2010 | Reply

    • just try to invest in undervalued companies, let the market be..invest in the business not the market..

      Comment by cliffhanger | November 14, 2010 | Reply

    • In my opinion, market will recover from this correction because –
      (a) During the run, many investor/trader are just on the sidelines as they were not yet convinced that it was a run. A lot of them are waiting for the opportunity to enter only to be disappointed by the amerket as it continually move higher all the way to almost 4,400.
      (b) December, traditionally a strong month for equity.

      The BIG question is…will it break 4,400. If it will NOT, I will start playing the idea of lightening my exposure to stocks and wait for 2Q of 2011.

      Comment by Raymond | November 14, 2010 | Reply

  26. i think this is a good development nothwithstanding the drop. I just reviewed my portfolio and it seems that it shrunk 20k this past 5 days.

    but its still good. some of the stocks i never thought id be able to buy is coming within reach. (i.e.mer at below 180)

    Comment by jasper | November 13, 2010 | Reply

  27. why we worry so much on how the market behave. if we are truly an investor in a true sense then we must take this oppurtunity to benefit from this negative market sentiment. take note only the sentiment has change for issues that are manageable in nature. it is indeed of little magnitude than the real global crises of 2008. In fact those big foreign investors are selling on good news of our local listed stocks whose income are higher than what are projected.

    if we are true investor we must capitalize on this situation. we have been waiting for this for a number of months and now that it arrives it seems everybody are afraid. are we only here for a quick profit and not willing to commit our capital for a short term sacrifice in exchange of a much bigger profit.

    we always ask what good stocks are we to buy these are the normal daily question of this comment section. and now that all those good stocks are now valued again on its price one or two months ago..why dont we buy it in small chunks as it goes down..

    I am not saying that i have a better understanding of the market situation than anyone of us but im sure and time will tell that those who buy on these times will have a better return than those they are waiting for on favorite recovery stocks that are daily mentioned on this blog. in times like this common sense investing is very much applicable.

    however we must be prepared for a protracted bear sintement of the market we must put aside a personal operational fund for the next three to five months. investing is similar to art of war in the sense that it is a matter of survival of your very own existence in the market. so we must not limit our knowledge to just technical, fundamental, macro and political..if we want a much longer success in investment we must likewise learn to manage our stock holdings as if we are a true holding company by itself.

    Comment by richard | November 14, 2010 | Reply

    • Amen!!!!

      Comment by jovic caluma | November 14, 2010 | Reply

    • In the World of Stock trading/Investing your real best friend is the TREND….

      Comment by Sophia | November 14, 2010 | Reply

    • what do you mean TREND? care to elucidate?

      Comment by jasper | November 14, 2010 | Reply

    • correct..

      i think trends are very superficial too.. how do we know when the trend will end? or when the trend will shift its course? nobody truly knows how to predict what will happen in the future..

      all we really have is now, and the past..check the company’s financial valuations. check their earnings, profitability. if the price of the business is reasonable based on their financial valuations, then invest in their business. dont pay too much attention to the market. pay most of your attention to the businesses.

      Comment by cliffhanger | November 14, 2010 | Reply

      • @Cliff what’s the best strategy when the Trend is going DoWn..

        Comment by Sophia | November 15, 2010

      • the best strategy is not to pay attention to the trend haha

        be a long term investor, have years as a horizon instead of months..

        Comment by cliffhanger | November 15, 2010

      • @Sophia In other markets, when trend is down, you can earn through shorting.

        @Cliff FA is a good tool in investing. But you’ll be surprise how TA can help you time properly your entries and exits.

        Comment by Oliver Mia | November 16, 2010

      • @Oliver

        whats the best TA book you can recommend?

        Comment by cliffhanger | November 16, 2010


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