Gus Cosio says so

Ideas on the Philippine Stock Market

Still a paper chase

11:27 pm  9 November 2010

Finally, the long awaited correction has arrived.  Somehow, a continuous rally, no matter how strong, leaves me gasping for air.  A retracement of the kind that we are seeing theoretically strengthens the move upwards. Here are some some fundamental and/or technical observations on stocks that I have been following:

AEV – the stock looks to have approached resistance and is forming a double top on the chart at 36.  The relative strength index appears to be in the down trend.  Being a holding company with a heavy weight on the index, it is important to follow where analysts place its Net Asset Value (NAV).  I reckon it to be around 40 from what I have been reading based on the prices of AP and UBP – its biggest holdings.  What this tells us is that we must follow this stock until we see some signs of it being oversold, then start accumulating the stock again.

AP – I am seeing an island top forming with a gap between 28.65 and 29.30.  The stock has been in overbought levels for quite a while without any sign of consolidation.  I cannot help but think that a broad based correction seems to be going on and AP should follow the rest of the market to a certain degree.  The stock has more room to go as some analysts are placing the discounted cash flow value per share at 36.13.  Some are also estimating 2011 earnings per share to be 3.57 putting PE at today’s close that is only 8.4X.  If this stocks moves to below 28.65, we should be ready with some cash to pour into it.

EDC – Consensus 2011 earnings per share (EPS) on the stock is 0.40 which is below the 2010 EPS of 0.44 due to rehabilitation activities to be done at one of its plants.  Nevertheless, 2012 EPS is expected to rise to 0.59 which is easily achievable given that electricity supply will be closer to the edge in 2012.  Fundamentally, the stock should do well.  Unfortunately, it has been undergoing some consolidation already for about a month now.  At the close of 5.78 today, I think the stock price has come to cheap levels.  While it may slip some more in the coming days, accumulation of EDC at these levels should pay off in a few weeks time.

DMC – This is another stock that will likely remain strong for some more months.  I am guessing that because it is looking to be technically overbought, and the RSI is declining, the stock should retreat a bit.  My guess is 35 where it will be relatively cheap given some estimates of EPS to be around 3.00 for 2011.

JGS – From a pure technical standpoint, JGS looks to me a good buy at these levels.  The RSI measure is gradually rising while the price has been steady.  It is pushing against a resistance at 26, and I am guessing that JGS can break through.  From a fundamental standpoint, the cash which it generated from the CEB IPO should tremendously reduce debt.  Given that earnings in portfolio companies such as URC and RLC have very strong showing and DGTL recovering, the NAV of JGS should be moving higher.

The consolidation also makes the old heavies such as AC, BPI, TEL, MBT, MWC, MER and ALI worth a look again.  My message remains the same – money is abundant and will continue to chase assets.  Those that are able to catch them early will benefit the most.

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November 9, 2010 - Posted by | Financial markets in Asia

85 Comments »

  1. Sir thanks for the informative post.. what about AGI? I want to accumulate more.. but I just dont know if its the right time now or wait for further correction.

    Comment by cholo | November 9, 2010 | Reply

    • Sir Gus,

      SMIC 3rd qrt 2010 NI at P12.5B, JGS same period at P12.77B. While the quality of the earnings is not yet presented this seems to show that JGS is indeed moving forward. No wonder the market value of JGS is becoming close to that of AC.

      Thanks

      Comment by alex | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  2. Since technicals seems to be the flavor of your blog today, I would like to share with everyone that the Bollinger Bands of FDC are quite contracted at the moment and given that it plans to increase capitalization by 70% through stock rights offering (to be approved by stockholders late November), its big move will probably be upwards.

    I was actually thinking of scalping a huge position in AP but you are right, it could form an Island Reversal so I better stay away. Thanks, and more power to your blog.

    Comment by warren | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  3. im frustrated by firstmetro. they still don’t know yet how many nickel asia they will give and yet they want me to deposit an amount that will cover everything..

    the other guys using the other online trading platforms seems to know how many they are allocated a few days back.. :/

    Comment by jasper | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Jasper,
      I too have an account with firstmetrosec.com.ph and I asked for an allocation. Unfortunately, they have orders amounting to over Php 50 million whereas the broker allocation from the lead arranger is only Php 6 million. I think, the brokers will allocate based on the amount of business they do with the customer. This is only fair because it makes the business a two way street.
      I actually realized that my business with them does not warrant special attention so I am not pressuring them to give me any. I will probably use the cash to pick up more ORE because the valuation of ORE will be dirt cheap in comparison to Nickel after it is listed. The OTC bid for Nickel is already 18.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 10, 2010 | Reply

      • What is the valuation of ORE vs Nickel?

        Comment by Nivla | November 10, 2010

      • Nivia,
        based on my reading, Nickel is offered at 12X 2011 earnings while ORE is trading less than 4X. Nickel, however, has a long track record while ORE is tantamount to being a post start-up whose shipment will start only near the end of 2010.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | November 11, 2010

      • Thank you Sir Gus,

        Since I didn’t get any allocation for Nickel I’ll go for ORE.

        Comment by Nivla | November 12, 2010

    • hi gus.

      does this mean its probable we won’t get any from them?

      thats just too bad. i really like the company though and wanted to experience being part of an ipo just once.. hehe..

      Comment by jasper | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • For citiseconline, it will be a raffle-based allocation 😦
      Im sure, there is a lot of upward momentum fr Nickel Asia during the listing date.

      I dont mind taking it at 23.00 😉

      Comment by Raymond | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • hi jasper, don’t be sad it’s an IPO maybe when it’s on the game it could drop a little bit and we’ve got a chance to buy on NiKL. I like mining too.. I just bought ORE last monday and I wanted to add some more, for me it’s cheaper than NiKL but I also want NiKL specially when price drop to 12, if not I stay with ORE or PX.

      Comment by marketbeginner | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Read the chapter “Dilution” in the prospectus.
      Sole chapter to make my decision with nickel asia.
      No brainer.

      Comment by Rudy | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • For Nickel Asia, I got zero allocation from first metro. (For Cebu Pac I got all my allocations. They probably know Cebu is not going to fly that is why they gave me a lot. Could they be hoarding Nickel? )

      Comment by Nivla | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  4. nice blog Gus! the correction will come whether we like it or not. the stocks are ripe base on Fibonacci view. But most often AEV still rising even the market went down.just my observation.

    Comment by marketbeginner | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  5. VLL’s price is so low! If only I have more money! The market’s having its pre-holiday sale 😛

    Comment by C | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  6. hi sir gus!

    news are always saying that the market falls because of profit taking.. but do u think people are also selling because of fears of the falling dollar and ireland’s mess?

    Comment by cliffhanger | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Cliffhanger,
      even if the dollar falls and ireland’s shit hits the fan, the strength of the underlying stocks in the Philippine market will continue. Local fundamentals are strong while that of Ireland are dumpy. The U.S. is slowly recovering so I would not generalize that the dollar will continue to be weak.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Actually the Ireland mess is making the dollar stronger (dumping euro for dollar) which is screwing up the whole point of the QE.

      No matter how good the local fundamentals are, as long as the money currently invested on emerging markets are flowing out towards commodities, the profit taking will continue. The PSE is not the only emerging market experiencing this problem at the moment.

      As long as the currency war continues, expect that pattern to maintain. Hopefully something in the G20 meeting will address this problem. The best thing you can do right now with markets like PSE is really cherry pick your stocks (avoid any stocks that has recent good gains) and move your money from stock to stock or just bunker down and think long term.

      Yes the fundamentals are still good which should help long term but there’s no denying that it’s ripe for profit taking and there’s no reason to lose more money than you have to.

      Comment by Mars | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • guys,

      whats happening on ireland?

      aside from the fact thats its full of irish? hehe.. (pun intended. its a very old joke eh)

      Comment by jasper | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Ireland is going the path of Greece, it’s debt is too big and Europe may have to bail it out which weakens the confidence in the euro. The quantitative easing (which was supposed to devalue the dollar and thus increase the flow of money not only in the US but also in emerging markets like PSE) is being neutralized by the weakening of the euro. Essentially what’s happening is that the global market is losing confidence on currencies as a whole and are rushing to hard currency otherwise known as commodities (oil, precious metals, natural gas, etc.). Commodities have been rising non-stop and right now the best place to take money to invest in commodities is from emerging markets who has been rising non-stop lately and profits are already huge. So until commodities rush settles down and is deemed over-bloated (which may take a while since it is very under valued because of the massive drop in 2008 – 60% loss from july to dec) or the market regains confidence with paper money expect more profit taking.

      Comment by Mars | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • In the long run, a weak dollar is bad for the real economy of the Philippines but for now, it is good for Philippine equities. Check out charts of the PSEi and the Peso (in relation to the USD) and you will see that as the dollar goes on a down trend the PSEi goes on an uptrend. SDAs and time deposits are at extremely high levels and I would think that the weak dollar has a lot to do with that, as is the case with Philippine stocks. In time a chunk of these SDAs and time deposits will find their way into equities (through UITFs).

      I think that the correction has been looming for a long time and that the breakdown of TEL was the catalyst that changed the market sentiment. This correction will probably be over sooner than most people think, but may consolidate for a while rather than trend up as strongly as before.

      Parenthetically, TEL will probably consolidate for a very long time.

      Good luck!

      Comment by warren | November 10, 2010 | Reply

      • Hi Warren, Mars, Sir Gus: I believed you have summarized the forces that will define the market sentiment in the coming days 1) PSE fundamentals and 2) cash flow from emerging market to commodity. I agree with Mars that there is no denying the money is moving to commodity plays, in fact, the robustness of ORE, LC and PX in thelast four trading days reinforced this observation. Gold, metal prices and Oil continue to rise while emerging markets are consolidating. The disappointing reports of TEL and Glo, the usual favorite of foreign fundies as Warren pointed served as the catalysts for this long awaited corrections.

        I am still very optimistic in our PSE. In fact, the recent earning reports from ALI, CEB , VLL and MPI clearly indicate that a good number of PSE listed companies are doing very well. My fearless forecast is that tomorrow and friday, these stocks will outperform the market, and will in fact lift the market sentiments in the days to come.

        Currently i`m holding VLL, CEB, SLI, DMC and LC. Good luck to all of us!

        Comment by Chris M. | November 10, 2010

      • Thanks for your comments, Chris.
        I think the global macroeconomic backdrop will continue to fuel assets with quick leveaged response such as commodities and stocks. Because of this outlook, I think commodity related stocks such as the mining sector will benefit significantly. This is why Nickel Asia is around 8 times oversubscribed and is bid 18.25 over the counter. I think it will pull up ORE due to it being in the same commodity segment.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | November 11, 2010

  7. huhuhu 😦 my feelings tell me to sell but my business mind tells me to buy… hmmmmm

    Comment by ria | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Good instincts, Ria

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • The mind is usually more reliable than the heart

      Comment by rodimus | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • If you are a position trader than do both. Sell your stocks and buy the ones that have been very strong (market favorites) so that when the market resumes its uptrend you will be holding better stocks than you did before this correction.

      Good luck.

      Comment by warren | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Buy low, Sell high. 🙂

      Comment by Jonathan | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  8. Bought some more MPI, AGI and ORE. Am not selling. Hope am just doing the right thing. 🙂

    Comment by Shan | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • I havn’t sold anything too. MPI DMC and AGI are on my shopping list…

      Comment by ria | November 10, 2010 | Reply

      • yup…DMC made me happy. I don’t mind it rolling back a little bit. Getting really for the kick off….soon I hope.:)

        Comment by Shan | November 10, 2010

      • @shan. i’m just curious… have the prices already reached your averages?

        Comment by ria | November 10, 2010

      • Ria, yes for DMC (making 80% profit now) and MPi but not on AGI. That’s the raeson why I am accumulating more as it dip so that my average will be lowered. How about you?

        Comment by Shan | November 10, 2010

      • not yet but its getting close. haha real close. My friend from BDO said too not to sell if you dont need the cash and start buying if the prices are already sound for you. I’m just wondering what the others are doing… My investment horizon is long term so i guess these are just some of the moments where our strategy is tested to the limit.

        Comment by ria | November 10, 2010

      • what are your thoughts sir? I read in one of your posts that in these situations, stocks transfer from weak to the strong hands? But with this really large correction, does it still hold?

        Comment by ria | November 10, 2010

      • Ria, indeed, having cash at times like this is a strategy. This is when we can take advantage of corrections. 🙂 Hold tight when the bull runs loose again. Hi Sir Gus…

        Comment by Shan | November 10, 2010

      • AGI is back on track. Good good. time to focus now on another income generating activity: work. haha

        Comment by ria | November 10, 2010

  9. hmm.. VLL and DMC has fallen down. Its tempting to just not buy nickel asia and buy those instead.

    My preference is to accumulate instead of to sell. Like a dragon and his hoard.. hehe.. 🙂

    Comment by jasper | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • I wasnt given any Nickel shares but me and my friend are going to try the small investors program in pse? they said they can offer a max of 1600 shares i think. Not much but still… with the major down, I’m now thinking whether to still give it a shot or just add up to my current positions…

      Comment by ria | November 10, 2010 | Reply

      • I subscribed Nickel Asia through BPI. They debited the full amount already. Is it possible that I won’t be given the full number of subscription?

        Comment by Shan | November 10, 2010

    • ok, thats it.. i just liquidated the money i was supposed to use for nickel asia and just bought DMC and EDC instead.

      better the devil you know..

      and i never really liked ipo’s anyway :sourgrapes: hehe..

      Comment by jasper | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  10. I am overwhelmed by the sea of red in my stock quote page. Everything except ORE is red. 😦

    Sir Gus,
    I bought some EDC at a high price (ie. sub-6). Would you suggest me to average down on this and, as you said in this post, to wait it out a few weeks?

    Comment by leo james | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  11. 5 of my issues are in the most active list. I wonder if I can still grin later or not.

    Comment by Shan | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  12. Wow!
    I thought sir Gus is a pure fundamental analyst!

    Comment by Raymond | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  13. Good day sir Gus! What can you say about the news that the Lopez holding is planning to undergo a quasi-reorganization? Is it good for its investors? Does it affect its stock prices? Thanks and more power!!

    Comment by Den | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  14. Good day sir Gus! What are your thoughts on LPZ sir? Thanks and God bless!

    Comment by KennyV | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  15. Hi Sir Gus, agree with your thesis that money will continue to chase assets. There is so much demand already for IPOs, everyone’s just scrambling to get shares. I think it’s another 5 to 7% for ipo buyers for Nickel Asia on the first day of listing.

    This will be easier to push up compared to CEB where overhead supply is much greater.

    Just my .02 😀 keep up the good work, i’m a big fan

    Comment by Pau | November 10, 2010 | Reply

  16. This week has been hell. In 3 days, I’ve already lose php13,657.4243. See the history:

    Nov 8 -2,540.4078
    Nov 9 -3,566.1069
    Nov 10 -7,550.9096

    Any idea sir when will the down-trend end? I’m thinking of getting out my fund from FAMI to cut further loss and protect my profit (from php31k now down to php18k: not bad for a 1 month investment) and enter again once it goes up..what do you reckon?

    -Scared Investor

    Comment by Scared Investor | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Scared investor,
      The worst thing to do is treat your mutual the same way you trade stocks. That simply is not the way to manage mutual fund investment. Rather, you should even add to your mutual fund when it goes down like this. Remeber, the fund manager is managing it and he would have a more advantageous view compared to the average investor because of the research and broker support behind him.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  17. MPI is overbought for the past 6 months i think it will go back to 3.6-3.4/sh…its experiencing a lower high and lower low..

    Comment by Jack Bogle | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi Jack,
      Which crystal ball gives you such definitive price predictions? I would just rather say that MPI is due for a correction.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 11, 2010 | Reply

      • Gus, you’re my idol.

        Comment by Steve Jobs | November 11, 2010

      • i salute you Sir Gus!

        Comment by Raymond Sison | November 11, 2010

    • well, mpi is at 3.84 now.. if it goes lower, say to 3.75 – i’m gonna sell some other stock so i can load up on it some more

      Comment by jasper | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  18. VLL
    – 2009 earnings is 9.6B. 2010 9 months earning is 15B, with a guidance of 20B for full year estimated earnings.

    A 200% growth on income. thats 10B! with a capital B.. and yet, its still trading below book value? Is this a temporary aberration or do people just hate villar that much.

    MPI
    142% growth this year. Will still grow next year due to the following:

    1. New developments – Segment 8.1(2010), Segment 9 and 10, SCTEX takeover.

    2. The 5 hospital contributions – Hospital had little contributions on the 2009 annual report

    This two companies are really very exciting. Medium term: VLL. Long term:MPI. Near term: ore? hehe.. dunno. But i’m gonna beef up my existing holdings when money comes in later this month.

    Man, i feel as if im looking at goldmines. i just need the funds to ‘excavate’ it so to speak..

    Comment by jasper | November 10, 2010 | Reply

    • Hello Jasper,

      Seems VLL up to end Sept NI is around PHP2.17b not around 15B?

      thanks

      Comment by alex | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • The 9 months gross income is 15.36B. The sales for the 3rd quarter alone is 5.17B..

      I think the 2.16B is the core net income.

      Comment by jasper | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • Thanks for your info, Jasper. I like both these stocks and I will not dispute your views on them.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • Im not looking at VLL at all because of Villar.

      Comment by rYan | November 12, 2010 | Reply

      • you should be careful to separate business and politics or emotions.. business is business..

        Comment by jasper | November 12, 2010

      • yes jasper, I agree that business is business but Villar is a politician and a business man who happens to own VLL. there is a saying “if there is a smoke, there is a fire” is he playing fair? I don’t but I saw a lot of smoke…All I can say is VLL is not the only company in the PSE.

        Comment by rYan | November 12, 2010

      • I agree. I never looked at VLL because of Villar, simply because Villar and his company incurred a lot of debts in local and foreign banks which his business never paid back because he became Senator then. Of course this is just hearsay…then again…

        Comment by Kristin | November 12, 2010

      • im not going to argue. but for me its better to be objective. i’ll base my buying and selling on such things as annual reports, pe and book value. And right now, the numbers indicate that the company is below book and is very profitable.

        being a real-estate company – you really can’t force people to buy your house/condo.. this is not like mpi where youre forced to pay the road-toll and the electricity bill. and they are going to have 20b in earnings. 2x that of 2009. it seems to me that a lot of people find value in what they do.

        Comment by jasper | November 13, 2010

      • Well I guess Im one of the so called conservative investor, for me investing is not all about money sometimes you have to be a good citezen and look for a company that has a good reputation. Dont wanna deal with bad people/company simply because they can promise me good wealth.

        Comment by rYan | November 13, 2010

  19. I have mixed feelings about seeing all stocks go red. Right now, I have AP, DMC, MPI, FGEN, EDC and VLL. I definitely plan to accumulate more DMC, but I am worried about FGEN and EDC. Should I sell at minimum profit?

    Comment by newinstocks | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  20. Hi Sir Gus,

    May I ask until when is this correction? thanks!

    Comment by Quatro | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  21. i want to buy some mpi and vll now. but the old adage ‘don’t catch a falling knife comes to mind’… its really tempting though. And ORE came back down to 3.66 now.. — :thinking:

    Comment by jasper | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  22. Well I hope you guys were on your toes today because the rally has started at exactly 11:00pm. If you had observed the way other emerging markets behaved today you would have predicted that there will be a dip followed big rally. I predict that the rally will continue tomorrow and up to next week. VLL has already increased 2% since I bought it. 🙂 It’s too bad PSE trading time is too short.

    Comment by Mars | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  23. Nice correction this week.. time to buy selective stocks.

    Comment by joey de leon | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  24. hayy, stock market is really difficult to predict. it may go red again tomorrow in the first hour then bounce up.

    Comment by newbie | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  25. very long correction. Let’s take advantage what tomorow’s market may give. let’s hope tomorow is rally because there’s a holiday next week(Nov. 16,2010).

    Comment by marketbeginner | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  26. Well there are 2 factors that pretty much told me that the PSE consolidation is over:

    1.) most of the fat has been trimmed and the PSE is almost at pre-September growth which I believe was more representative of the PSE’s fundamentals. If the PSE had continued it’s steady rise before the September rally, PSE should be around 4100+.

    2.) one of the key macro movers why almost every market experienced a dip and rally pattern is the Fed’s announcement that they will start buying on Friday (probably already Saturday in RP time) a total of $105 billion in government bonds divided into 18 days up to Dec 9. So that’s like saying “we’re gonna prop up the market every day until Dec 9”.

    That’s pretty much what ended the consolidation. So barring any more bad news I’d say the market will start high tomorrow and taper off a little and then Monday should be the start of a new long time rally.

    Comment by Mars | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • I hate to be the bearer of bad news but remember what I said about “barring any more bad news”? Well a report was just released that China’s inflation is in a 2-yr high. That’s like pouring fuel to the fire that is the commodities rush. I don’t know how much that will affect the PSE but it’s already battering the US markets (Dow -1%, S&P -1%, Nasdaq -2%) and this was a market expecting a rally today. But it’s early and maybe we’ll see some kind of late rally.

      Comment by Mars | November 11, 2010 | Reply

    • Well aside from the initial drop the US market seems to want to rally. And there’s the CISCO drop to consider. Friday maybe a lost cause because of the strong dollar (+0.7%) which is bad for the PSE (the stronger the dollar, the more expensive it is for foreigners to invest in the PSE) but I’m still very bullish for Monday.

      Comment by Mars | November 12, 2010 | Reply

      • I quite disagree a little bit about Monday..just because of the Currency war against US and China which came to life in the G20

        Comment by Foreign Investor | November 12, 2010

  27. Next week green na market.

    Bigayan na bonus sa Monday kaya dami pambili ng stocks…hehehe

    Comment by Lyndon | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  28. buti pa kayo me bonus na. kami next month pa.

    Comment by jasper | November 11, 2010 | Reply

  29. How low will the correction go? From 4380+ It’s 4074 as of 11/12.

    Comment by Nivla | November 12, 2010 | Reply

    • Some technical analyst said that a 3800 correction is still considered healthy.

      Comment by rYan | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  30. Wow. Stupid move by Macquarie Group Ltd. Talk about fulfilling your own prophecy. By declaring the correction will last up to the end of the year you pretty much neutralize any chance of a rally.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-11-11/philippine-stocks-peso-extend-weekly-loss-on-policy-concern.html

    3800 may still be healthy but with any kind of correction it tends to go lower than what is healthy before it recovers.

    Comment by Mars | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  31. For me, if this downtrend continue and dollar are being controlled the comming weeks are worse. If it goes uptrend next week because of the very good news on the revenue of the companies then we will be happy especially on christmas day.

    Comment by marketbeginner | November 12, 2010 | Reply

  32. With what’s happening now, is the bull run over?

    Comment by John | November 13, 2010 | Reply

  33. x

    Comment by chris m. | November 14, 2010 | Reply


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