Gus Cosio says so

Ideas on the Philippine Stock Market

Bull on the loose

10:30 p.m.  Monday  1 November 2010

Being a long weekend, I was able to have a longer look at what has been happening over the past two months, a time when the PSE Index surged around 20%.  To gauge the breadth of this rally, I took a look at some stocks which I have been following, particularly those that would weigh on the index.

The biggest out-performers were AGI and DMC, both of which had gone up around 90% in these two months.  The next best were PNB and AEV which returned above 60%.  These were followed by a host composed of AEV, SMDC, EDC, AP, JGS, FGEN, SCC, and MEG, all of which returned anywhere from 40% to 50%.  Those that performed slightly above the market were MPI, MER, URC, RLC, SM and UBP which returned around 30%.  Large cap stocks AC, MBT and BDO performed just about at par with the market while BPI, ALI and TEL lagged with around a 15% return.  You can fine tune the percentages to get the exact figures.  What I wanted to point out was there had been quite a bit if out-performance in the market, and that there are sectors that reflect investor views.

What I see in investor preference is the inclination to power and infrastructure, property and holdings.  These are essential plays of a strong growth of the underlying economy.  Banking stocks are all over the place depending on the specific outlook on the banks.  I had expected the banks to be a surrogate on the economy, but it has not been the case.  Nevertheless, investors appear to be making a call on the economy from their stock preferences.

I did not mention the performance of the  mining sector because while stocks like PX, LC/LCB, AT and ORE have been making great strides, the resource sector moves in a different perspective from the other sectors which are beneficiaries of a strong economy.  In fact, the mining sector can continue to move up even as the rest of the market consolidates.  It is because mining takes its cue on metal prices and the cycle on materials.  The cement companies would be somewhere in between materials and infrastructure.

This is probably why I am inclined to put on mining stocks in my portfolio.  I am patiently waiting for a correction but am also looking for opportunities.  What is also interesting in our market is that some stocks which have been dead for sometime looks to be coming back to life such as RFM which I hear is planning a follow on offering.  Then, there is the idea that the SMC and PCOR tandem would be coming back to life soon.  A similar resurrection was that of PSB which surged to 62 last Thursday.  I hope the phenomenon continues.  This would open up the possibilities for other third line shares which I genuinely hope would develop an investor following.  On my last count, there are only around 70 stocks that have seen more that P1 million value turnover in the last six months or so.  I am really hoping that the number increases, after all, more and more of these stocks have been developing strong fundamentals.  Some examples would be FOOD, COAT and SPH.  Of course, it will take time, and in special cases even some jockeying.

Looking at the index, it seems that a decent consolidation is called for.  Actually, I have been patiently waiting for one ever since the index broke 4,000 in mid-September.  I must say that I have been happily surprised but sadly mistaken that there had been no correction.  Investors even took the index past 4,200 with ease as stocks that had not been traditional leaders showed the bigger gains.  It is tough to second guess the market and it has cost me a bit in lost opportunity.  I think the right thing to do is to keep invested for as long as this bull is on the loose.

November 1, 2010 - Posted by | Financial markets in Asia


  1. What are your thoughts on IP and SLI? Do you have target prices for these issues at least until the end of the year?

    Many thanks.

    Comment by AbysmalSpecter | November 1, 2010 | Reply

    • Abysmal Specter,
      On SLI, I recommend patience. I have nothing on IP as of now.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 2, 2010 | Reply

      • Hello Sir,
        Thank you for your response to AbysmalSpecter.
        I have a question is their any possible date/month for the follow on offer? And the price in which it will be offered?

        Thank you

        Comment by Foreign Investor | November 2, 2010

  2. wow! my FOOD was mentioned by the guru! i like that sir!
    my PX and ALI were also there. i hope all my other stocks mentioned in my blog-blogan, (promote… *wink*)will go further NORTH before Christmas. Thanks a lot sir Gus!

    Comment by RmR | November 1, 2010 | Reply

  3. Yeews, i like FOOD, among the second liners this is the cash rich company, just wonder why investor neglect FOOD, hope that 3rd quarter result would be an upside. yearly dividends distributed by FOOD and acquisition abroad is aggressive. i have noted that foreign stock brokers are buying too much of MBT, any idea of the price of the SRO? I am reserving fund for nickel asia and accumulating shares of EDC, PIP and AT.

    Comment by art | November 1, 2010 | Reply

    • Art,
      The only problem with FOOD is that it is not so liquid, but as it gains following, its potentials are enormous.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 2, 2010 | Reply

      • sir:
        what liquidity are you refering into despite aggressive aquisition they have these figures: FOOD

        Six Months Ended June 30 2010 2009
        Net Sales Growth Rate -13% 6%
        Net Income Margin 4.6% 4%
        Current Ratio 2.92 2.67
        Debt to Equity Ratio 0.46 0.50
        Return on Average Stockholders’
        Equity 4.7% 6%

        At 2.92 Current ratio as of June 30, 2010 FOOD has the ability to cover 3x its current liabilities. Unless, we have a new figure in 3rd quarter, the financials of FOOD is encouraging. Total assets is 2x the Total liabilities.

        Comment by art | November 2, 2010

      • Hello Gus,

        I am just newbie in stocks and I just want to understand what you mean when you say that Food is not so liquid. Does it mean that it is hard to sell? or there are not enough buyers?

        Comment by cxons | November 3, 2010

      • Hello cxons,

        I’m not Sir Gus, Just to make it simple.. if a stock is not so liquid means that this specific share isn’t being traded actively and as you mentioned their aren’t enough buyers and sellers in the market

        Comment by Foreign Investor | November 3, 2010

      • Cxons,
        That is precisely what I mean. The test of liquidity is when it comes to selling the stock. sometimes, there are not enough bidders. To be safe, trade only the stocks which has value turnover of at least 1 million pesos a day.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | November 7, 2010

  4. Hello Sir Gus,

    ORE’s up almost 30% since a month ago, do you think it’s too late to buy this stock? Or is ORE’s bull still young and growing?

    Comment by C | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • you should back-read Gus’s post for until about two months back. he already indicated his target price and the time-horizon (i.e. 6p at around 1 year) – but then again, its just a hunch and not a prophesy so take it for whats it worth.

      Comment by jasper | November 2, 2010 | Reply

      • Thanks jasper! and for the comments in 5 that also seem to answer my question 🙂

        Comment by C | November 3, 2010

    • Something is really cooking at ORE. I thought 3 was high a month ago but now it looks like it is going to 4. I think the strategy now is to “buy high and sell it higher” (6 as Mr. Cosio’s bold prediction).

      Comment by Nivla | November 3, 2010 | Reply

      • I guess it is because of Nickel Asia IPO.
        If Nickel Asia IPO price will be set near to PE of 12x.

        ORE stock price trading at 6x PE is reasonable.

        Comment by Raymond | November 3, 2010

  5. If I remember it correctly, I think Sir Gus said ORE could hit P6, but the homerun is P12 at around 12 months time.

    Comment by KennyV | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi KennyV!

      I think you are referring to this reply dated October 23, 2010:

      “I believe that it should go to 4 in a few weeks. The home run is if it goes to 6 in the next 12 months because given its prospective earnings, it could.”

      Comment by Anthony | November 2, 2010 | Reply

      • Sup Anthony!

        Yeah, I was referring to that reply. Thanks for digging it 🙂

        Comment by KennyV | November 2, 2010

  6. Gus you are a member of FMIC right? Any thoughts about this company. It seems to be killing it in its area of business.

    Comment by jasper | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • Did you mean “making a killing?”

      Comment by drexler | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • yeah, that..

      I’ve missed the metrobank move, but i think fmic is undervalued and can potentially a target for my portfolio

      Comment by jasper | November 2, 2010 | Reply

      • Guys,
        For sense of propriety, I would rather not comment on FMIC.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | November 2, 2010

      • ok gus I understand.

        Comment by jasper | November 2, 2010

    • FMIC p/bv = 1.30, p/e average 3 years = 17.94, pretty good company to invest in if you ask me. though it isn’t that liquid..

      Comment by cliffhanger | November 3, 2010 | Reply

      • the pe for this year is below 10. then they gave a high dividend this year- about 8.5% i think. a piece of their business is for underwriting bonds, stuff like that. and since we are in a bull run the opportunity to make more business like that is high.

        its on my -tune in later- list (another one is ATRK)

        Comment by jasper | November 3, 2010

  7. property sector is still in demand and it’s moving. most of it print a lot of money. happy bull run!

    Comment by marketbeginner | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • I think that the attention is back to the property sector after weeks rotating around other sectors 🙂

      Comment by Foreign Investor | November 2, 2010 | Reply

      • Agree 🙂

        Comment by Raymond | November 2, 2010

    • hello ria,visit RESORT WORLD from 1pm onwards… then OBSERVE, THINK and LEARN

      Comment by raymond | November 3, 2010 | Reply

  8. Hi sir,

    What is your suggestion on AGI? This is my core holding and my previous research indicated that it should reach 12 by year end. As of today, it already went up to as much as 11.9. When a price reaches a value that most people estimated maybe 2-3 months back, should we start taking profits or would it continue to surprise us since the year hasnt ended?

    Comment by Ria | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • As my favorite idol jesse livermore says.. If it’s rising you should be long, if it’s falling you should be short.
      It could go above what you expect because this one is a great business. Look at the news Alliance Global sees double-digit income hike.

      Comment by marketbeginner | November 2, 2010 | Reply

      • I won’t argue with that.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | November 2, 2010

    • Hi Ria,
      For my opinion I think you should not think of taking profits for the moment.. maybe until second half of next year provided that the market is still good. AGI has just started building their base. But if your a short term investor. Profit is profit

      Good luck

      Comment by Foreign Investor | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi Ria! AGI is my ultimate favorite stock and is my core holding (around 35%). Im going to hold on to it as long as I can. Maybe topslice when it hits 13. But that’s just me though.

      Comment by Cholo | November 2, 2010 | Reply

  9. Hi Sir Gus, which stocks do you think is a good buy now at current levels? My current holdings are AGI, DMC, JGS, ORE, DGTL and VLL. I have some cash left and am thinking if i should just add to my DMC (a broker friend told me that its better to put my money on DMC than on Time Deposit) and JGS, or get MPI and AP instead?

    Comment by Cholo | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • wow! you have a very nice portfolio bro cholo. we only have 1 stock in common, VLL. go VLL!

      Comment by RmR | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • Cholo,
      the only thing I can say is forget time deposits for the time being. We’re in the middle of a bull market. Time deposits will lock your money up. rather keep it in stand by cash. after all, 2% per annum per month is not difficult to pass up.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 2, 2010 | Reply

  10. “RFM Income Rises 86% to P524 Million”

    Comment by Anthony | November 2, 2010 | Reply

  11. Hello sir Gus,

    Do you think Nickel Asia IPO would fare better than Cebu PAC? Are you gonna avail? I heard that there are already a lot of clamor going into the IPO date. Just curious, are you still holding unto your Cebu PAC shares?

    Comment by Richie lim | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi Gus,

      Am also curious.. are you still holding to your Cebu PAC shares? If yes, for how long? Thanks.

      Comment by Newbie | November 3, 2010 | Reply

      • Newbie,
        Yes, I am keeping my CEB, but to be transparent, I sold some on the first day of the IPO. I bought some back again at 125.10. I like CEB because it is a low cost producer.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | November 7, 2010

    • I thought all IPO shares in a bull market would go up but CEBU Pac is well … “palpac”.

      Comment by Nivla | November 3, 2010 | Reply

      • That is the misconception…people think that IPO price will ALWAYS go up after the listing.

        Comment by Raymond | November 3, 2010

  12. Hi to all, Just Hold on to your stocks i dont think there will be correction in the coming weeks Money in circulation will double or even triple in the coming weeks 13 month/xmas bonus will be given this month and Ofw usually send BIg before xmas…QE2 is coming PSE will rally to 4600….

    Comment by Sophia | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • I hope there will be no BIG time intervention from BSP.
      Fed’s QE2 will put more money not just in the Philippines but to all emerging markets. BUT, if suddenly FED will announce that there will be no QE2…..I dont want to think about it 🙂

      Comment by Raymond | November 3, 2010 | Reply

  13. I already have the application for the nickelasia ipo. firstmetro said they can supply an unlimited amount..

    at first I though i’ll sink all my extra cash there. but i’m having second thoughts. maybe i’ll keep a some. you know, just-in-case.

    but I think after I buy nickel, my portfolio will have been sufficiently diversified. give and take one or two more stocks.

    Comment by jasper | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • Their already offering the IPO?
      I got to open an account with them this week..

      Comment by Foreign Investor | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • its a reservation. the firm price will be set by nov 5 and the amount you registered will be billed by firstmetro by nov 10.

      Comment by jasper | November 2, 2010 | Reply

      • Thanks for the info Jasper

        Comment by Foreign Investor | November 3, 2010

  14. Hi Sir Gus,

    Offer price for Nickel Asia is ranged at 14.95 – 23. At what price do you think should we subscribe?

    BTW, I always enjoy reading your entries. Keep it up.

    Comment by blue7 | November 2, 2010 | Reply

    • I will still take it @23 😉

      Comment by Raymond | November 4, 2010 | Reply

  15. CEBU – going down not able to sustain. let wait and see in 3 months

    Comment by JOEY DELEON | November 3, 2010 | Reply

    • CEb going 119 😦 baka maging 100 ?

      Comment by JOEY DELEON | November 3, 2010 | Reply

    • a -5% decrease now, is people panicking? :scratch:

      but well. if it goes down below 100 it will become tempting to buy.

      Comment by jasper | November 3, 2010 | Reply

    • hopefully not but this one’s pulling my portfolio down.

      Comment by sdrobob | November 3, 2010 | Reply

  16. ORE is going up to 4. If you had bought this when gus bought it, youd be very happy right now..

    now why didn’t I but it again? hehehe.. :p

    Regarding CEB – The IPO price wasn’t that expensive when it came out, but it wasn’t that low either so the potential for upside was rather limited (Not unless you believe earnings will explode later). There is still potential there i guess. But with all the other good stocks..

    Comment by jasper | November 3, 2010 | Reply

    • i got cut..

      what i meant to say was with all the other good stocks out there, theres very little reason to buy the issue if your are only lukewarm about the price.

      Comment by jasper | November 3, 2010 | Reply

      • Hi Jasper,

        If you had more funds what other good stocks would you buy now? Would you cut losses on CEB? Thanks.

        Comment by Newbie | November 3, 2010

      • I averaged down today at 116. looks good. hope the decline stops.

        Comment by Doctor Mundo | November 3, 2010

      • basically, i think mpi and vll are still undervalued considering they’re both very good and strong companies (particularly for mpi). for banks, chib has a low pe a yearly stock dividend and in 2011 they will grow from 255 to 400 branches. thats growth right there. meanwhile rcbc is selling at about 8pe. very low for the 5th biggest non-gov bank (used to be 4th before pnb overtook it)

        but right now, i’m preparing funds for the nickel asia ipo. Its one other stock i won’t mind owning.

        btw: I’m not recommending anything alright. you might get impatient if you buy and expect them to move like ore or mbt. all the securities i wrote here aren’t the big movers this year. but on the long term i think they will make me happy (or not.. hehehe.. very little is guaranteed :/)

        Comment by jasper | November 3, 2010

    • That is why I did’nt subscribe to CEB.

      I instead acquire JGS and so far I am very much satisfied 🙂

      Comment by Raymond | November 3, 2010 | Reply

  17. I sold ORE yesterday but it just keeps going up. I made P35T thanks to this blog. Sir Gus, I think you should start putting a “Donate” button here somewhere. People are making money out of your words. 🙂

    Comment by denchjp | November 3, 2010 | Reply

  18. Nice price movement by VLL today. Looks like we’re on a lift off. I hope this goes on. Thanks for the advice, Sir Gus 🙂

    Comment by finch | November 3, 2010 | Reply

    • Thanks sir Gus for your encouraging words about VLL. When its price was down, I contemplated on cutting losses. Fortunately, I held on to VLL.

      Comment by Sonn | November 3, 2010 | Reply

      • Same here. Patience indeed pays off. I am confident that it will challenge 4.00 next week, in time for the release of its earnings report.

        Comment by Anthony | November 4, 2010

  19. About CEB.. I remember asking Sir Gus if I should cut loss with VLL just a week ago, and he said that we have to be patient. I guess this is the same with CEB? Cebu Pac recently bought a new Airbus, and seem to be giving seat sales weekly. Maybe it’s just picking up momentum. One thing we could do probably is average down like Doctor Mundo, and sell it once it gets higher than the average price if we’re not comfortable with the stock anymore.

    What do you think Sir Gus?

    Comment by C | November 3, 2010 | Reply

    • or u could sell partially..

      Comment by cliffhanger | November 3, 2010 | Reply

    • VLL is a little bit different. Its below book value, a low pe, low debt and a growing stable of vertical development. actually i’m thinking of adding to my holdings. its still quite attractive. i think it follow meg soon. but thats a hunch :/

      Comment by jasper | November 3, 2010 | Reply

      • the price at 3.50 is still attractive

        Comment by cliffhanger | November 4, 2010

  20. SIR GUS,

    Comment by AL | November 3, 2010 | Reply

  21. I just re-read all 500+ pages of the nickel asia ipo. my head is swimming with lateritic nickel references. hehe..

    Comment by jasper | November 3, 2010 | Reply

    • Jasper, are you buying NKL IPO price? While the financial numbers seem attractive, looking at CEB IPO, maybe best to just buy after the IPO to get ideal sense of price. What do you think?

      Comment by Mark Anthony | November 4, 2010 | Reply

    • yes i will buy provided price is closer to 14 than 23 (indicated price is 14.xx-23.xx)

      btw: im buying simply because im trying to diversify. if px goes down to 13 or ore goes down to 3, i might buy that instead.


      oh wow, what happened to secb! a 6.77% jump?! :vertigo:

      it seems as if stocks are jumping 6-7% everyday.. mpi, vll, now secb.. wonder whats next.

      Comment by jasper | November 4, 2010 | Reply

      • jasper,

        thats what i mean of just sitting down and simply watch your diligently picked stocks. just maintain a few 3 or 4 and hold it.

        Comment by richard | November 4, 2010

      • SECB has good fundamentals and a low PE. =) Was looking at it a week ago. It was due to be noticed.

        Comment by John | November 4, 2010

      • It’s also on expectations that the company will report a 30% profit for the 1st 9 months

        Comment by Anthony | November 4, 2010

      • It doesn’t look like ORE will go back to 3. I deepest it can go is 3.6. Investor Sentiment is really strong with ORE.

        Comment by Foreign Investor | November 4, 2010

      • yeah, secb has low pe and a very low npl ratio. in fact it has the lowest among all the big banks (1.xx%). but that doesn’t mean i expected it to jump so high..

        now rcb needs to follow suit.. hehe..

        oh hey foreign investor. thanks for the link.

        Comment by jasper | November 4, 2010

    • Hey Jasper,
      This might boost your confidence of the Mining Sector, hopefully this happens with Nickel Asia 🙂 as well as other Mining shares such as ORE, PX 😀

      Comment by Foreign Investor | November 4, 2010 | Reply

  22. Will the Fed QE2 be good for Philippines Stocks?

    Comment by Nivla | November 4, 2010 | Reply

    • QE2 will push the dollar even further maybe $1 to 35 pesos by next year…Goodbye BPO’s…..

      Comment by Troy | November 4, 2010 | Reply

      • Troy,
        The BSP is quite worried about that.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | November 7, 2010

  23. What is happening to TEL? Price drop by almost p200

    Comment by trixia | November 5, 2010 | Reply

    • I think this most definitely have something to do with the news on Piltel’s losses :S
      I did not expect the drop to be as significant as today.

      Comment by jamezu | November 5, 2010 | Reply

    • time to buy TEL? gus whats happening?

      Comment by jasper | November 5, 2010 | Reply

      • very tempting indeed. But I’ll only buy TEL from excess cash (which I do not have). I won’t sell my winners for TEL.

        Comment by Sonn | November 5, 2010

      • Hi Gus,

        There are so many conflicting comments above, we would like to know your analysis of what is currently happening.
        Will appreciate your letting us all know what you are doing with your CEB and TEL as a result of their price drops and whether or not Nickel Asia’s IPO is a good buy for you. As always, we value your analysis in giving direction to our stock transactions. We hope you can find time to reply. Thank you very much.

        Comment by Bobby | November 6, 2010

      • Have a look at today’s post, Bobby.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | November 7, 2010

    • but still.. wish i had money. need to capitalize on this

      Comment by jasper | November 5, 2010 | Reply

    • earnings are flat too.

      Comment by Sonn | November 5, 2010 | Reply

    • yes, it might be that, thats as good as it gets with regards to earnings. but at 12x pe for one of the countries strongest company it could be hard to resist.

      actually, if i manage to buy pldt and with mpi – ill have cornered mer too.. hehe..

      dang.. i need funds.. :/

      Comment by jasper | November 5, 2010 | Reply

  24. Hi Sir Gus & everyone,

    Considering the downside of pldt isn’t the risk considered to be a falling knife category to think of the 800 jobs cut and the 1% revenue drop? On the other side, if it reached the bottom where else will it go but south? What do you think guys? Thanks

    Comment by artinvesting | November 5, 2010 | Reply

    • Art,
      It is pretty risky to buy TEL right away, but keep an eye on it.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 7, 2010 | Reply

  25. TEL will have a one time loss of 2 billion pesos for plan removal of 6% of its workforce. At hindsight this is a good management move from MVP to ease the earning pressure in the future, emanating from a maturing telcom industry. Investors however negatively reacted, i think, because they are anticipating messy labor disputes that is often the case in our country. TEL almost singlehandedly dragged our index down. Globe reported again a loss in 3rd quarter as compared to last year.

    Comment by Chris M. | November 5, 2010 | Reply

    • Good observation, Chris. Taking out TEL from Friday’s index move, the market would have been up 10 points.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 7, 2010 | Reply

  26. Hi sir,

    I planned to get Nickel asia’s IPO. With what happened to TEL today, is it a good move to get it instead of nickel?


    Comment by ria | November 5, 2010 | Reply

  27. Today is a day of correction but nothing to worry because next week is another day of bull run. Expect big wave next week.

    Comment by marketbeginner | November 5, 2010 | Reply

    • Big words for a marketbeginner.

      Comment by Steve Jobs | November 5, 2010 | Reply

  28. nickel asia’s final price came out. surprisingly, its juts 15p per share. in the far lower range of the spectrum. a very good entry price imho.

    an officemate won’t buy though because he said its gonna be like ceb, mpi, vll, gma7, etc.. and tank after a few months.

    but i think one of the reasons why index is down is that lots of people are selling so they can take advantage of nickels ipo.

    Comment by jasper | November 5, 2010 | Reply

    • I sold positions for NIKL. Php 15 should be a good entry. I hope my request for subscription goes in. My funding was pegged at php 20.

      Comment by Mark Anthony | November 6, 2010 | Reply

      • Good move, Mark.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | November 7, 2010

    • Jasper,
      there’s an old adage: A winner never quits, and a quitter never wins.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 7, 2010 | Reply

  29. Tel and Glo vs. Skype and YM….Skype 100 million dollars IPO is coming….

    Comment by skype | November 7, 2010 | Reply

  30. hi sir,

    do you think that EDC and FGEN will go up despite the news about it? and nickel asia what’s the target price of it?

    Comment by lY | November 22, 2010 | Reply

    • IY,
      I think the news on FGEN will filter out later after analysts see why they bought the British Gas stake. As for EDC, I think the British Gas deal does not affect it. What is keeping it down is the rehab of the Bacman facility which will not be in commission until 2Q2010.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | November 22, 2010 | Reply

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