Gus Cosio says so

Ideas on the Philippine Stock Market

Greeting a new day!

8:30 am  Thursday   18 February 2010    before the markets open

The U.S. market rose again overnight because of positive housing data and investor preference shifting from Europe back to the U.S.  This bit of news should bode well for the Philippine market since the U.S. remains to be a huge buyer of Philippine exports notably semi conductors and electronic parts.  The news that encourages me more strongly is the very strong results of Hewlett-Packard driven by strong hardware and printer sales globally.  Again, being a big supplier of electronic components to the U.S. and even to China and Singapore, the HP performance indicates momentum being gathered in businesses where Philippine exports can benefit.

The shift of investor preference away from Europe should highlight the better performing markets in Asia.  I think stocks like TEL, AC, MBT, MPI and AGI should trade better today.  Even out performers over the last 6 months – URC, RLC and AP will likely remain strong in today’s trade.  I am looking forward to stronger moves in the next few days particularly because the shock of Greece is starting to wane.

Taking a cue from our neighbors, while Sydney’s All Ordinaries and Seoul’s KOSPI are opening lower, this was because of Qantas’ 72% decline in profits for the first half of its fiscal year.  I expect Hong Kong and Shanghai to come back strong after their lunar new year holidays as fund managers return with fresh hopes of a good year ahead.

Good luck on trade today.

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February 18, 2010 - Posted by | Financial markets in Asia

12 Comments »

  1. Hi Gus,

    I would like to start trading but don’t know how. I have been reading your articles and they are very good learning articles. However, I don’t know how to start since I was not able to get in when there was a fall in prices. Should I buy now when the stocks are trading better or wait until prices fall again?

    More specific suggestions on what to buy and when will be very helpful.

    Thank you.

    Comment by Bobby | February 18, 2010 | Reply

    • Bobby,
      The key really is to find the stocks that you like to put your money in before you look at timing the market. Timing the market is very tricky and I cannot claim to know what is the right or wrong time. I judge stocks by its value and its condition in the market. For exampple, I like TEL and MBT right now. The market may go down but I will still like the stock enough to stay with it. I also like PIP and PNB although those are special situations which I hold for the bigger move down the road. I like AGI but I’m not buying it now because I’d rather wait for some correction on the stock. I also am looking to buy AP and DMC when it goes down a little. The key is to find your level of comfort and stocks that are really good that you don’t get nervous when it goes down.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | February 18, 2010 | Reply

  2. Hi Gus,

    just asking about the PNB when do you think this will fly off? Is PNB considered as blue chip?

    Thanks 🙂

    Comment by Kier | February 18, 2010 | Reply

    • Kier,
      PNB is not a blue chip stock in the sense that it is still on its way to recovery. I am a patient holder of PNB because when the merger with Allied goes through, I could see a doubling of the price or more. If I wait a year, it would still be worth the wait because of my expected return.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | February 18, 2010 | Reply

      • Thanks, Is the price P22 for PNB nice to have?

        Comment by Kier | February 18, 2010

      • PNB at 22 is not bad. If you look at recent history of prices, the lowest was 20.75. If you’re looking to sell at 35 or 40, P22 shouldn’t be so bad right. You can post your buying at 21.75 since the market is weak and see what happens.

        Comment by Gus Cosio | February 18, 2010

  3. Wow, early day online, Pop! Going over the recent articles…

    Comment by Kiddo | February 18, 2010 | Reply

    • yeah. I’m color coded today, so I got to the office just past 7am.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | February 18, 2010 | Reply

  4. gus,
    wich do you prefer, live brokers or online brokers?

    Comment by JimBoy | February 18, 2010 | Reply

    • Hi JimBoy,
      Given that I can formulate my own ideas, I choose to trade on line. I have an account with firstmetrosec.com.ph which to me has a very good online set-up. Live brokers are very useful if you have a very insightful broker who can give you sound advise and the occasional scuttlebutt. Unfortunately, many of the local brokers have very little value added and sometimes they cannot offer sound information. Also, if you are not a large account, do not expect any favorable service from a live broker. Remember his bread is buttered by commissions and if the revenue from your account is small, there is nothing in it for him. better just go on-line and learn to trade the right way.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | February 19, 2010 | Reply

  5. Sir Gus, how do you compare metrosec with citiseconline in terms of service, reliability and cost? I have always used a live broker since 5 years ago and I am planning to also use an online broker without giving up my live broker. Thanks

    Comment by Nel | February 19, 2010 | Reply

    • Nel,
      I have my bias toward firstmetrosec.com.ph because I have my account there and I am close to the management. The advantage for firstmetrosec.com.ph is that your cash account remains at metrobank so it will be easy to move money in and out. You can even use your ATM card.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | February 19, 2010 | Reply


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