Gus Cosio says so

Ideas on the Philippine Stock Market

Happy Greetings to all

We closed the trading day before Christmas with the market up slightly, but it was not strong enough to think that it was brought about by good old St. Nick.  I wouldn’t call 8 points a Santa Claus rally.  Looking closely at the index heavyweights, of the top 6 heavies which make it up  – namely TEL, BPI, ALI, MER, AC and EDC – 3 underperformed the PSE index and 3 outperformed.  The under performers were TEL, BPI and AC while the out performers were ALI, MER and EDC.  All these stocks, however, were higher than where they were at the start of 2009.  There were a number of outperformers – AP, DMC, FGEN, FLI, FPH, GMA7, PX, RLC, SECB and URC.  The rest of the index components either just went with the index or performed below.

With only 2 days left to trade, it is really futile to try to make money, although that is not to say that none can be made.  The problem is that a thin market is formula for suicide for a new buyer.  If you’ have the position, the last 2 trading days may be a good time to get out.  Essentially, I think the stock market year is over and we should give ourselves a pat in the back for being here for the ride.  For the skeptics, there will always be opportunities if you stay and watch the market close enough.  Because markets are dynamic, the opportunities always change.  It is important to be there when the major moves happen because there are no free lunches.

That is why Christmas is so special.  I represents the special grace that God gives all of us for free.  “For God so loved the world that He gave His only Son that whoever believes in him may not perish but have eternal life.” That is what Christmas is really about – that we have a Savior.  That is why it is so special. So whatever happens to us in the market, win or lose, it will never be the end of the world for us.  For as long as we believe, we will always have a savior.

God bless all of you who read this blog.  May you receive the gift of Christmas joyfully with your family and loved ones.

Merry Christmas.

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December 23, 2009 - Posted by | Financial markets in Asia

8 Comments »

  1. What do you think about NRCP?

    Comment by Connie | December 24, 2009 | Reply

    • Hi Connie,
      I’m afraid I haven’t got a clue. I follow around 60 stocks. These are the 60 stocks which trade an average of Php 5 million a day over the last 6 months. Unfortunately, NRCP is out of that radar screen so it is not really a very tradeable share. That also means that you don’t analyze the stock with the market in mind but on its own merit. Will it perform ever? My guess only if it has earnings per share way above everyone else.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | December 24, 2009 | Reply

  2. Hi Sir Gus! Merry Christmas to you Sir..
    I would just like to ask something about the analysis you shared to us about PNB as I am also looking to buy some shares in 2010. Does the analysis already factor in the effects of the bank’s impending merger with Allied Bank?
    If not yet, will the merger have give substantial boost on PNB’s EPS and BV for 2010? Thank you in advance Sir Gus and Godbless..

    Comment by Tim | December 25, 2009 | Reply

    • Hi Tim,
      whatever analysis I am sharing already takes into account the merger. The broker study I read computed for a projected consolidated balance sheet. I believe that given the structural condition of the bank and its acquired state of profitability, I have no pproblem holding on to PNB over the next 12 months or so.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | December 26, 2009 | Reply

  3. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and your whole family. God bless

    Comment by Leo | December 28, 2009 | Reply

    • Hey Leo,
      Holiday greeting to you too. Have a look at fami.com.ph and see if you’d be interested in investing regularly in mutual funds. God bless.
      Gus

      Comment by Gus Cosio | December 29, 2009 | Reply

  4. Merry Christmas, Tito Gus!

    Comment by Nicole | December 29, 2009 | Reply

    • Hey Nicole,
      I hope the weather in Vancouver isn’t too cold these holidays. Keep warm and keep watching Philippine stocks.
      God bless you.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | December 29, 2009 | Reply


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