Gus Cosio says so

Ideas on the Philippine Stock Market

On the road

10:30am  Wednesday  29 July 2009  Philippine Stock exchange Index live trading at 2807.69 (Wow! that’s over 40 % YTD)

I haven’t had a chance to post because I’m on the road.  I’m in Cebu attending a forum of Cebu furniture manufacturers and exporters.  We’re showing them how to list in the PSE SME board.

I took a look at the market and I’m a bit worried about Meralco (MER).  Just remember, stock prices do not go up forever.  FPH have also gone up in sympathy because this Lopez company still owns 13.3% of Meralco.  But if MER goes to its fair level, FPH and even Benpres (BPC) will also come off.

In my view, if you’ve made money on these stocks, take it and run.  Nobody loses by taking a profit, no matter how early.

I suggest having a look at some of the laggards.  If they have good underlying stories, they may be worth a buy.  As for me, I’ll be a serious buy and hold investor for some of the banking and property stocks.  To me it is all about low interest rates which will be around for some time to come.

God bless you all.

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July 28, 2009 - Posted by | Financial markets in Asia

5 Comments »

  1. Hi gus, thanks for your daily blogs. I’ve been following your entries lately with much interest. What’s your take on the CHIB and RLC? I think these are some of the remaining decent/conservative stocks, that are still highly undervalued as of date. And do you think the equity market can sustain its gains going in the last two quarters of this year?

    Thanks, and more power to your blogsite.

    Comment by bluelaw | July 29, 2009 | Reply

    • I agree with your view on CHIB and RLC. RLC has gained quite a bit but it remains to be a value stock even at this point. In April, I gave a presentation to pension fund managers in Hong Kong and RLC was one of my picks because of good and sustainable earnings as well as regularity in paying dividends. For as long as I am positive on the market, I will hold this stock.

      To your second question, I thinks these gains are sustainable but that is not to say that we cannot see drops in stock prices. I just feel that if prices decline, people will come back to pick it up because alternative assets are very low yielding and the economic prospects for the Philippines is better going forward.
      God bless you.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | July 29, 2009 | Reply

  2. In addition to my comment above, I also wish to ask your take on ICT, which I think is also similarly situated with CHIB and RLC. Thanks Gus.

    Comment by bluelaw | July 29, 2009 | Reply

    • I agree completely. In fact, I pointed it out to my colleague just a few days ago because I saw a widely followed shipping index to have recovered to 2006-2007 levels. While there have been 20% less ships calling on Philippine ports, ICT has expanded business elsewhere. When global trade picks up again, and it most certainly will, ICT should go back to its 2007 levels.

      Comment by Gus Cosio | July 29, 2009 | Reply

      • Gus, thank you very much for your insights. If you don’t mind, I will inform my other friends about your blog. As there are not much available info re the Philippine stock market in the Internet, I’m rather glad that your blogsite offers daily perspective/opinion re the changes in the market. Thanks, and again more power to your blogsite.

        Comment by bluelaw | July 29, 2009


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